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The New Mexico Lobos take on the Boise State Broncos. Check out our college basketball odds series for our New Mexico Boise State prediction and pick. Find out how to watch New Mexico Boise State.
This game matters for Boise State, since the Broncos are trying to nail down an NCAA Tournament bid. They are currently projected to be in the field, but they are in the back end of the field with a No. 10 seed. That's a position which has a small to modest margin for error, but it's not a supremely comfortable position, either. Teams which are projected to be a No. 7 or 8 seed have a considerable amount of comfort at this point in the journey to March Madness. Boise State isn't quite there. A win here moves the Broncos closer to that position of comfort.
Yet, as important as this game is for BSU, it's far more important for New Mexico. The Lobos are projected as one of the first four teams out of the NCAA Tournament field after a recent slide and some horrible losses to Wyoming (home) and Air Force (road). Those two face-plants took the Lobos several spots down on the bubble. One of those losses was damaging enough, but two brutal defeats to lower-tier teams will need to be met with a strong response down the stretch. New Mexico really needs this game here in Boise and then Saturday's game against San Diego State. If UNM can go 2-0 in these two games, it will probably make the NCAA Tournament. If it goes 0-2, it probably won't. If New Mexico splits these two games, it will need to get some work done at the Mountain West Tournament and avoid any more bad losses.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the New Mexico-Boise State College Basketball odds:
College Basketball Odds: New Mexico-Boise State Odds
New Mexico Lobos: +5.5 (-102)
Boise State Broncos: -5.5 (-120)
Over: 146.5 (-115)
Under: 146.5 (-105)
How To Watch New Mexico-Boise State
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream: Fox Sports app
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET, 7:30 p.m. PT
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Why New Mexico Could Cover the Spread
The story of Richard Pitino, dating back to his days as head coach at Minnesota, is that his teams lose steam in February. To this point in the month, that claim has held up. It remains true that Richard Pitino teams hit a wall and lack answers at both ends of the court. Pitino and his team will be motivated to change that reality. Everyone on the UNM roster is aware of the significance of this game and this moment. Boise State needs this game, but New Mexico needs it more. One should expect a close game. Given that Boise State is giving more than five points, UNM can lose by five and still cover. That seems like a probable occurrence.
One key point: New Mexico's Wyoming and Air Force losses occurred without guard Jaelen House, one of the Lobos' star players. UNM looked a lot better with House on the floor against San Jose State last Friday. New Mexico should be able to stay close with House on the floor. The Lobos are much more like their truest and best selves when House is in the lineup.
Why Boise State Could Cover the Spread
This Boise State team is getting the job done and is playing at home, where it has been very hard to beat this season. Boise State hasn't lost at home since its season opener on November 10. The Broncos are unbeaten at home in Mountain West Conference games. The Broncos are doing what it takes to fend off challenges from teams throughout the conference. They stood tall in a close game last week on the road at Colorado State. They handled UNLV down the stretch this past Sunday. They are getting the defensive stops they need to win. If they can bottle up New Mexico's offense, the Lobos don't have the defense which can keep up with the Broncos.
New Mexico gave up 77 or more points in a recent three-game stretch. When UNM allowed 68 points to San Jose State this past Friday, it marked the first time the Lobos had allowed fewer than 70 points since a win over San Jose State on January 18. If UNM isn't playing San Jose State, it can't play particularly good defense in the Mountain West.
Final New Mexico-Boise State Prediction & Pick
New Mexico will keep this game close. Pick the Lobos.
Final New Mexico-Boise State Prediction & Pick: New Mexico +5.5
