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The Oregon State Beavers take on the Oregon Ducks. Check out our college basketball odds series for our Oregon State Oregon prediction and pick.
The Oregon State Beavers went 3-28 last season, one year after making the Elite Eight in 2021. That was a crash-and-burn experience. The Beavers are trying to recover from that. So far, the results are mixed — not terrible, but not anything to throw a parade for. Oregon State has more than double the amount of wins it had all of last season, with seven victories so far in 13 games. That's nothing special, though: a 7-6 record is not going to get OSU into the NCAA Tournament conversation, and of course, Pac-12 play now kicks into high gear. Can Oregon State at least split its Pac-12 schedule (the Beavers are 1-1 and have 18 games left)? Most analysts would say no.
The Beavers have lost to Duke, Florida and USC over the past five weeks. They lost to Portland State. They beat Washington in Pac-12 action. Washington does not look especially good, though, so as the Beavers prepare for this game against Oregon, they are significant underdogs, and should be.
Here are the Oregon State-Oregon NCAA Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Oregon State-Oregon Odds
Oregon State Beavers: +13.5 (-104)
Oregon Ducks: -13.5 (-118)
Over: 131.5 (-110)
Under: 131.5 (-110)
Why Oregon State Could Cover the Spread
The Oregon offense and the Oregon team, more broadly viewed, have simply not earned the benefit of the doubt here. Oregon State can be very competitive in this game simply by defending well and rebounding with toughness. Oregon State doesn't have to shoot extremely well to keep the game close. Oregon's offense doesn't have the elite scorers or the proven consistency to avoid a several-minute drought. The Ducks go through really bad patches of play in most of their games. Sometimes they overcome it, sometimes they don't, but at least one bad run of five minutes occurs in an Oregon game these days. When considering the large point spread here, Oregon State seems like a really good bet to cover. That's not an endorsement of the Beavers so much as the very large amount of points Oregon is being asked to cover here. Let's remember that Oregon lost by double digits at home to UC Irvine (and Irvine is hardly an elite team) and also lost outright at home to Utah Valley. This is not a good Oregon team, at least not yet, and it has injuries which leave the roster depleted and underdeveloped. Oregon coach Dana Altman is great at maximizing rosters, but he doesn't have anything close to the number of roster pieces he needs in order to win big this season. The betting line seems to be assuming that the public will go to Oregon, but if you're following college hoops, Oregon just hasn't done that much this season through 13 games.
Why Oregon Could Cover the Spread
The Ducks haven't met their potential, but if they ever do, they become very lethal. Will Richardson has had a very disappointing season for Oregon, but if he plays his best and turns on the jets, everything completely changes for Oregon, and the Ducks would be likely to beat the brakes off the Beavers, by at least 18 or 19 points. Oregon just needs a top-level performance from its best player to change the calculus surrounding this game. It might sound like simplistic analysis, but it's a very reasonable and attainable scenario for the Ducks.
Final Oregon State-Oregon Prediction & Pick
This is a game in which Oregon will likely need to scratch and claw for every basket, and any five-minute lull should help to keep the margin of victory relatively low. Go with Oregon State.
Final Oregon State-Oregon Prediction & Pick: Oregon State +13.5
