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The Penn State Nittany Lions are set to face the Michigan State Spartans this weekend. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Penn State-Michigan State prediction, odds, and pick.
Penn State has struggled in the early portion of the college basketball season. The Nittany Lions had hoped that a win over Oregon State meant their season would take off, but Oregon State has been one of the biggest and most noticeable disappointments in the country after its Elite Eight run this past March. Penn State will not derive much value from that win. Accordingly, beating the Beavers did not catapult the Nittany Lions to a higher level of success.
When considering a Penn State Michigan State pick, realize that the Nittany Lions lost at home to Miami in the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. They lost decisively at home to Ohio State in Big Ten play. This is a team which is struggling to find momentum, rhythm, and any sort of groove in the early stages of the season. Going to the Breslin Center to face the Izzone and the Spartans is not a road trip a team needs when it is scuffling, but the flip side of that point is that if Penn State can find a moment of awakening and revival, a victory over Michigan State would instantly transform this team's hopes and expectations for the post-Christmas portion of its season. The people who follow college basketball odds would acknowledge as much for the Nittany Lions if they can pull off the shocker in East Lansing.
Michigan State might not have the high ceiling of some of Tom Izzo's recent teams, including the 2019 group which went to the Final Four in Minneapolis and lost to Texas Tech in a national semifinal. However, the Spartans are also not struggling the way other recent MSU teams have done. Some Michigan State teams need two to three months to mesh on the court. This team seems to be rounding into shape sooner than that. It's something to think about when you make your Penn State Michigan State pick.
Michigan State lost to Baylor at the Battle 4 Atlantis Feast Week tournament at Thanksgiving, but it preceded that loss with impressive wins over Loyola-Chicago and Connecticut. Earlier this week, the Spartans handed Minnesota its first loss of the season. The Spartans went into Williams Arena — not an easy place to win — and dominated the Golden Gophers from start to finish. Other MSU teams have not been able to handle that kind of Big Ten road assignment with ease or poise. It's a really good sign of where this team is at in its evolution. Izzo knows he doesn't have a finished product, but he can also see real progress one month into the season.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:
College Basketball odds: Penn State-Michigan State Odds
Penn State: +10.5 (-110)
Michigan State: -10.5 (-110)
Over: 130.5 (-110)
Under: 130.5 (-110)
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Why Penn State Could Cover the Spread
The Nittany Lions are still waiting to play their best game of the season. Maybe this is the time it happens. If you're skeptical of that idea, you're being rational and reasonable, but look around and realize that in college basketball, momentum and hardship — success and failure — are very fleeting. Consider that point when making a Penn State Michigan State prediction.
Seton Hall almost lost to Cal but then just beat Texas. Dayton beat Kansas and just lost to SMU. Gonzaga beat UCLA by a large margin and then lost to both Duke and Alabama while struggling against Tarleton State. Arizona State started 2-6 and then won at Oregon. Colgate won at Syracuse but lost to Pittsburgh. So many really weird things are happening in college basketball. Those events just listed represent a small sampling. Penn State beating Michigan State would be shocking, but it wouldn't be the biggest surprise of the whole season.
Why Michigan State Could Cover the Spread
The Spartans are a much better team than Penn State. They are playing far better than the Nittany Lions, and they are at home. Let's not overcomplicate things here when making a Penn State Michigan State pick.
Final Penn State-Michigan State Prediction & Pick
Michigan State should wipe the floor with Penn State. Let's move on with our day, shall we?
Final Penn State-Michigan State Pick: -10.5
