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The Rhode Island Rams are set to face the Dayton Flyers this weekend. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Rhode Island Dayton prediction, odds, and pick.
The Rhode Island Rams will not make the NCAA Tournament unless they win the Atlantic 10 Tournament. The Rams have missed their big chances to collect high-level wins. Whereas Dayton succeeded in beating some high-end teams, the Rams lost to Providence and Davidson. Their three A-10 wins have been against the lower half of the league. The key for URI, as you contemplate a Rhode Island Dayton prediction, is to find the right lineup rotation and cultivate enough depth so that the Rams can win four games in four days at the A-10 Tournament in March. That will need to be their ticket if they want to make the Big Dance this season.
Dayton has one of the weirdest resumes in the country, as college basketball odds analysts would tell you. The Flyers defeated Miami and Kansas, two teams which will get high seeds in the NCAA Tournament, but they also lost to Austin Peay, Lipscomb, Ole Miss, and UMass-Lowell. The Flyers are 5-2 in the Atlantic 10, but they lost to George Mason. They have a few high-quality wins but seven losses, many of which are damaging to their NCAA Tournament at-large-bid profile. If you are thinking about a Rhode Island Dayton prediction, you need to account for the Flyers' volatility under coach Anthony Grant.
At their best, the Flyers are a very dangerous team. At their worst, they can lose to nearly anyone. One of the key challenges Dayton faces in getting to the NCAA Tournament is that the Atlantic 10 probably has just one at-large-worthy team, the Davidson Wildcats, who won 15 straight games before Virginia Commonwealth snapped that streak earlier this week. Beating any non-Davidson team in the A-10 doesn't hurt Dayton, but losing to those various teams will hurt. Dayton simply doesn't have much room for error, and the Rhode Island Dayton odds reflect that.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Rhode Island-Dayton odds:
College Basketball odds: Rhode Island-Dayton Odds
Rhode Island: +6.5 (-114)
Dayton: -6.5 (-106)
Over: 125 (-120)
Under: 125 (-102)
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Why Rhode Island Could Cover the Spread
The Rams have not won their biggest and most important games of the season against the toughest opponents they have faced, but they did come close in their loss on the road at Davidson, the best team in the Atlantic 10. It stands to reason that if the Rams could push the A-10's best team on the road, they can push a less formidable Dayton team on the road. Also keep in mind that Dayton, while generally very strong at home, has lost a game in Dayton Arena this season, to VCU (which is Anthony Grant's former school, interestingly enough). Rhode Island can certainly cover the six-point spread.
Why Dayton Could Cover the Spread
The Flyers thrive at home, in front of one of the most vocal and loyal fan bases in college basketball. Dayton hosts the First Four every year. The locals in Dayton take their college hoops very seriously, and this naturally extends to their hometown team. It's hard to win in this building. Dayton, knowing it has to win this game to have any real chance of getting an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, figures to play with the level of urgency needed to not only win, but win decisively.
Final Rhode Island-Dayton Prediction & Pick
Dayton knows it doesn't have a large margin for error. You should see the Flyers fly across the court and do what they need to do to win this game convincingly.
Final Rhode Island-Dayton Pick: Dayton -6
