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The Tennessee Volunteers are set to face the Kentucky Wildcats this weekend. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Tennessee Kentucky prediction, odds, and pick.
Tennessee is already in trouble in terms of the SEC race. The Volunteers have lost to Alabama and LSU, two very tough road assignments but still games a good team needs to find a way to split. The Vols and their fans would have been fine with 1-1 in those two games. An 0-2 record puts Rick Barnes' team behind the eight ball in the push for an SEC championship. College basketball odds analysts know that Tennessee struggles to shoot from the perimeter. Opposing teams are able to pack the paint, make sure the Vols don't get dribble penetration to the basket, and can thereby shut down Tennessee's offense. Barnes has had Tennessee teams like this before, so he knows he needs a great defensive performance (which this team is capable of) to win the toughest games on the SEC schedule.
A visit to Rupp Arena in Lexington is regularly a tough game for other SEC basketball schools. The Big Barn in the Bluegrass is one of college basketball's venerable arenas. Tennessee knows this will be a bumpy ride. The Vols have to make the Tennessee Kentucky odds work in their favor by finding enough timely offense — including from unlikely sources — so that Kentucky can't get on top of this game and overwhelm Big Orange.
Kentucky does not have the roster it hoped to have entering this season. The injury to shooter C.J. Fredrick, an Iowa transfer, took away a lot of what coach John Calipari hoped to achieve this season at the offensive end of the floor. We have seen Kentucky make some progress on offense, but it has to be kept in mind that UK's better games have come against weak teams such as Georgia and North Carolina (Georgia being much weaker than UNC, but Carolina not being anything remotely close to what it once was when it won the 2017 national title under now-retired coach Roy Williams).
Kentucky, saddled by injuries, recently lost to LSU. The Wildcats bounced back with a win over Vanderbilt, but the Commodores are another lower-tier opponent. Beating bad teams is fine, but Kentucky's ceiling is hard to pin down right now.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Tennessee-Kentucky odds:
College Basketball odds: Tennessee-Kentucky Odds
Tennessee: +4.5 (-110)
Kentucky: -4.5 (-110)
Over: 142 (-102)
Under: 142 (-120)
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Why Tennessee Could Cover the Spread
The Vols know that Kentucky hasn't beaten many high-end opponents this season. Kentucky has roster limitations and has not shown it can beat an elite defense. Tennessee does struggle to score, but the Vols can definitely defend. Their best defensive performance should turn this game into a rockfight, probably in the low 60s or maybe even the high 50s. If UT can do that, your Tennessee Kentucky pick should lean toward the underdogs. Kentucky, on the other hand, will want to play this game in the high 70s or low 80s.
Why Kentucky Could Cover the Spread
The Wildcats can do what other Tennessee opponents have done: Sit back in the paint and make sure no one gets to the rim. Dare Tennessee's weak shooters to hit 3-point shots. It's a simple formula. It has a great chance of succeeding. Keep this in mind when you make a Tennessee Kentucky prediction.
Final Tennessee-Kentucky Prediction & Pick
The Wildcats might win the game outright, but Tennessee and Kentucky have played slugfests before. They figure to get in the mud and play another grinder here. The game won't get into the 70s. Go under more than any one team, though give slight lean to Tennessee.
Final Tennessee-Kentucky Pick: Under 142
