Subscribe
Follow Us
The UCF Knights take on the Ole Miss Rebels. Check out our college basketball odds series for our UCF Ole Miss prediction and pick.
The Ole Miss Rebels and UCF Knights might not be NCAA Tournament teams, but if either team is going to make a run at March Madness, this game is essential. Both teams are in very similar positions through nine games this season. They are both 7-2. Neither side has huge wins on the portfolio. They both need to get on a roll and pick up quality results as the season moves along. UCF will need to grab a win against Houston in AAC competition, while Ole Miss will need to pick off a few of the top teams in the SEC. In terms of each teams' two losses, one loss has been perfectly fine: UCF losing to Miami won't hurt the Knights' resume, since Miami is a likely NCAA Tournament team. Ole Miss losing to Memphis shouldn't hurt the Rebels, since the Tigers are a likely tournament team as well. However, UCF's loss to UNC-Asheville could hurt the Knights on Selection Sunday, and Ole Miss's loss to Oklahoma could be damaging to the Rebels if they are on the bubble in early March. It's very clear that neither team can realistically afford a loss with conference play just two weeks away.
Here are the UCF-Ole Miss NCAA Basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: UCF-Ole Miss Odds
UCF Knights: +6.5 (-110)
Ole Miss Rebels: -6.5 (-110)
Over: 130.5 (-105)
Under: 130.5 (-115)
Why UCF Could Cover the Spread
The Knights have defeated some decent teams so far this season. They beat Oklahoma State in overtime. They also handled a nine-win Santa Clara team. The UNC-Asheville loss was early in the season. The Knights were caught off guard in that game. They have clearly improved since then, with their only loss being to a Miami Hurricane squad which reached the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament last March. UCF has improved over the past four weeks or so, but what should also matter here is that Ole Miss has not been especially convincing in recent weeks. The Rebels' loss to Oklahoma in particular should be an indication that this group does not have a lot of upside, at least not enough to be seen as an upper-tier team in the SEC.
Article Continues Below
If you were to stack these teams together and look at what they have achieved through nine games apiece, you would put them fundamentally on the same level. Given that reality, the fact that Ole Miss is giving six and a half points seems like a large spread. A 3.5-point spread might seem to be a lot more appropriate for this game. Keep in mind that Memphis was 11 points better than Ole Miss. UCF is a fellow member of the AAC alongside Memphis. Do we think that Memphis is roughly 18 points better than UCF right now? That doesn't seem accurate. UCF plus the points feels like the better play.
Why Ole Miss Could Cover the Spread
The Rebels did not play particularly well against Memphis or Oklahoma in recent losses, but they turned around and crushed Valparaiso by 37 points. Valpo is not an especially good team, but the key detail to point out is that Ole Miss's offense functioned extremely well. Ole Miss seemed to learn something from its ugly games against Memphis and Oklahoma. Coach Kermit Davis got through to his players if that Valparaiso game offers any real indication of how the Rebels are evolving this season. Ole Miss got wiser and became more effective. Teams do evolve and change. Ole Miss is getting better after suffering its two losses this season.
The other thing to point out is that UCF still doesn't have a big high-end win this season. The Knights have looked better in recent weeks, but they have also played three overtime games this season. That's in a nine-game schedule. If a team is playing overtime in one out of every three games, that should be a concern.
Final UCF-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick
Ole Miss doesn't deserve to be favored by this many points. You could choose to stay away from this game, which is probably the smart play, but if you insist on a pick, lean to UCF.
Final UCF-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick: UCF +6.5
