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The Wisconsin Badgers are set to face the Michigan State Spartans. Check out our college basketball odds series, which includes our Wisconsin Michigan State prediction, odds, and pick.
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Wisconsin and Michigan State met earlier this season, as college basketball odds analysts are fully aware of. The Badgers were favored going in, given that they were hosting the Spartans in Madison. However, Michigan State jumped the Badgers, taking a double-digit halftime lead and scoring a comfortable 86-74 win which was never particularly close. Wisconsin prides itself on playing tough defense and making it hard for opponents to complete every pass, cut, or other offensive action. Yet, Michigan State was able to roll through the Badgers' defense like a knife through warm butter.
That game took a lot of people by surprise. It's worth noting that point because these teams have evaded easy categorization this season. Michigan State has lost at home to Northwestern and barely beat Minnesota at home. MSU lost to Illinois on a night when the Illini didn't have either Kofi Cockburn or Andre Curbelo, two of their best players, in the lineup. Yet, if you are thinking about a Wisconsin Michigan State prediction, it's worth knowing that the Spartans have defeated Loyola-Chicago, Wisconsin, and Connecticut, among other teams. Michigan State is good but volatile.
Wisconsin is not that different. The Badgers were good enough to soundly defeat Purdue on the road, but they trailed Indiana by 22 points at home before coming back to win. They trailed Penn State with under eight minutes left this past Saturday. They pulled off a 13-0 run to take a nine-point lead but then gave up a 9-0 run in the final minutes before escaping with a 51-49 win. It is hard to know which version of either team — the Badgers or Spartans — will show up on a given night. Keep this in mind when making a Wisconsin Michigan State pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Wisconsin-Michigan State odds:
College Basketball odds: Wisconsin-Michigan State Odds
Wisconsin: +4 (-110)
Michigan State: -4 (-110)
Over: 138.5 (-106)
Under: 138.5 (-114)
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Why Wisconsin Could Cover the Spread
The Badgers and much of the Big Ten seem to operate on a “if you're expecting a zig, they'll zag instead” trajectory. It seemed logical that Wisconsin would beat Michigan State at home in the Kohl Center, but Michigan State dominated all 40 minutes. Maybe now that the Spartans are favored and at home, Wisconsin will rise up and win. If you think the Badgers will win, it's because they are bound to shoot better than they have in recent weeks. Wisconsin made just 3 of 24 3-pointers in a loss at Illinois, then 6 of 21 against Penn State over the weekend. Johnny Davis, a national player of the year candidate, was just 2 of 13 against Penn State and little better against Illinois. Surely he won't keep throwing up bricks. If he starts hitting, Wisconsin has the upper hand.
Why Michigan State Could Cover the Spread
The Badgers can't shoot right now, and there's no guarantee they'll bust out of their team-wide slump (which goes far beyond Johnny Davis). Michigan State can certainly lock up the Wisconsin offense.
Final Wisconsin-Michigan State Prediction & Pick
It's hard to think Wisconsin will continue to shoot so terribly. The Badgers are bound to shoot at a decent clip, if not better. Take Wisconsin plus the points.
Final Wisconsin-Michigan State Pick: Wisconsin +4
