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The 4-1 Arkansas Razorbacks travel to Mississippi to take on the 3-1 Rebels in Week 5 of college football on ESPN. Both teams are coming off losses to the top teams in the nation. Arkansas was shut out 37-0 against #2 Georgia as Ole Miss lost 42-21 on the road in Alabama. With that said, let's check out our college football series, which includes Arkansas-Ole Miss prediction, odds, and pick we have laid out below.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the Arkansas-Ole Miss odds:
College Football Odds: Arkansas vs. Ole Miss Odds
Arkansas: +5.5 (-112)
Ole Miss: -5.5 (-108)
Over: 66.5 (-110)
Under: 66.5 (-110)
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Why Arkansas Could Cover the Spread
Arkansas finally suffered their first loss of the season against a top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs defense that allows 4.6 points to opponents. Arkansas accumulated only 162 yards on offense and thirteen total penalties for 101 yards. The Razorbacks were due for a letdown game and will look to bounce back against an Ole Miss defense that gives up 29.0 points per game to opponents. KJ Jefferson leads the offense with 909 passing yards and six touchdowns. The ground game averages 224.8 per game, and running back Trelon Smith leads with 302 yards and three touchdowns. The Razorbacks rush the ball 66.6% of the time, which ranks top ten in the nation (7th).
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The Arkansas defense will be facing a fast-paced offense in Ole Miss that has scored 40 points or more in three of their four contests this season. Opponents are averaging 282.8 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play against the Razorbacks. The offensive line had a disastrous game with too many penalties last game, but this team is still great at running the ball. The run game should rip through an Ole Miss defense that was exposed on the ground against Alabama last week, yielding 210 rushing yards. Arkansas is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games and 4-1 against the spread in their last five games overall.
Why Ole Miss Could Cover the Spread
The Ole Miss offense came out the gate firing this season, averaging 53 points per game over their first three games. The Rebels offense is led by a potential Heisman candidate quarterback Matt Corral. Corral has 1,210 passing yards with ten passing touchdowns and no interceptions. He also has 161 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. The offense averages the 3rd most yards per game (522.3) and 6th most points per game in the nation (41.7). They had a chance to make a statement against #1 Alabama, but they were humbled quickly in that game.
Opponents are averaging 370.3 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play against the Ole Miss defense. The rush defense will have to come up big against the Razorbacks ground game. As the Rebels get stops on the ground, they will create more opportunities for the offense to get on the field and run the score up. The Rebels are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games overall. The Rebels have won against the spread in their two games as a five-point favorite or more this season.
Final Arkansas – Ole Miss Prediction & Pick
Neither team has kept a game close this season yet. Matt Corral is more successful at home playing in Oxford than on the road. He is 44 of 64 for 616 yards with eight touchdowns and 103 yards and four touchdowns on the ground in both home games. Further, Ole Miss has outscored opponents 115-38 in those games. They gain the edge in what should be a high-scoring affair resulting in a cover by the Ole Miss Rebels.
Final Arkansas-Ole Miss Pick: Ole Miss -5.5
