Subscribe
Follow Us
College Football is right around the corner with just over two months remaining until the start of the 2023 season. Consequently, FanDuel has us covered with a plethora of College Football win totals for teams across the country. Today we take a look at Indiana Football's over/under win total – continuing our College Football odds series with a prediction and pick.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Indiana Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 3.5 wins: -176
Under 3.5 wins: +142
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Indiana Can Win 3.5 Games
Indiana got off to a strong start last season – winning each of their first three games. They proceeded to drop eight of their final nine to finish 4-8 overall and just 2-7 in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers' only conference wins came against Illinois and Michigan State – both teams that finished in the middle of the pack in the conference. However, they also lost two additional conference games by a single score which would've given them six wins on the season. While they can't be expected to win every close game, being in striking distance of six wins would be more than enough to get them an over this season.
Looking at their schedule, they have two free wins against Indiana State and Akron within the first two weeks. With such a low over/under, Indiana would need just two conference wins the rest of the way. The easiest of those would be a home date with Rutgers – although a home matchup with Michigan State looks doable as well after they beat them in East Lansing last season.
Roster-wise, Indiana is going to need a miracle at quarterback. The starting job will be left to either Tayven Jackson or Brendan Sorsby. Jackson likely has the best chance of winning the job given his pedigree. A former four-star prospect, Jackson transferred to IU this spring following a year at Tennessee. He is technically the highest-ranked quarterback in program history but he'll need to adjust quickly after throwing just four passes at Tennessee last year.
Senior running back Josh Henderson will lead the backfield after rushing for 398 yards (4.4 YPC) and four scores last season. However, the most exciting back may be sophomore Jaylin Lucas. As a freshman, the 5'9″ Lucas scored four total touchdowns – two on the ground and two via kickoff returns. He's certainly explosive but will need to bulk up if he wants to withstand a heavier workload. Leading receiver Cam Camper also returns after he paced the Hoosiers with 46 receptions, 569 yards, and two scores last season.
Why Indiana Can Not Win 3.5 Games
The biggest hurdle facing the Hoosiers is their schedule. Indiana ranks as ESPN's 10th most difficult schedule in the nation next season. They have just three non-conference games – all at home against Indiana State, Louisville, and Akron. Indiana State and Akron should be easy wins considering the Sycamores are an FCS program and the Zips rank as the fourth-worst team in the country according to FPI. However, they'll almost certainly be an underdog against Louisville after the Cardinals finished 8-4 with a dominant bowl win over Cincinnati – a team who beat IU by 21 in the regular season.
Their conference schedule doesn't get any easier. Realistically, Indiana has three games that can be chalked up as automatic losses – against Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. With Wisconsin (20), Michigan State (31), Maryland (44), Illinois (45), and Purdue (50) all ranking in the top 50 in ESPN's FPI, the Hoosiers would be lucky to win a single one of those games. That leaves Indiana with a single winnable conference game – at home against Rutgers. However, that is far from a sure thing considering Indiana lost to Rutgers last season and the Scarlet Knights sit just three spots from them in the FPI.
While their offense will be inexperienced, it will also be talented. The biggest issue from a roster standpoint comes on defense. The Hoosiers' allowed 35 PPG last season – 118th in the country and last in the Big Ten. They were lit up on the ground (98th in YPG) and through the air (123rd in YPG). While IU has typically had solid defenses under Tom Allen, they have a ton of turnover with 15 defensive players transferring away and 14 new ones coming in.
Final Indiana Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Even the most optimistic Indiana fan wouldn't touch this over even though they'd need to win just two conference games to get there. In what may be Tom Allen's last year in Bloomington, don't bank on the Hoosiers.
Final Indiana Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 3.5 (+142)
