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The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Duke Blue Devils. Check out our college football odds series for our North Carolina Duke prediction and pick.
The North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils meet in a game which is surprisingly important. Imagine thinking before the season that the UNC-Duke game in Week 7 could be for the ACC Coastal Division championship. It is at least a possibility: not probable, but possible.
Duke did suffer a stinging loss to Georgia Tech, but with Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Miami, and Virginia all struggling, the Coastal truly is up for grabs. If Duke can beat North Carolina and beat a few of the other teams in the division, the Blue Devils might be able to win the right tiebreakers in the standings and get the nod at the end of the season. There doesn't seem to be a realistic path forward for the Blue Devils if they lose here to Carolina, but if they win, they're definitely in the mix heading into the latter half of October. First-year head coach Mike Elko has done a good job with Duke, leading the Blue Devils to a win over a Power Five opponent, Northwestern, on the road. Duke put up a credible showing in a competitive loss at Kansas, which is a good team this year. The Georgia Tech loss is a significant missed opportunity, but a win versus UNC would reset Duke's season and, quite crucially, make the Blue Devils more likely to reach a bowl game than not, which would be a tremendous achievement for this team in 2022.
North Carolina might be the Coastal favorite. Drake Maye has been solid at quarterback for coach Mack Brown's Tar Heels, who have taken care of business against division rivals Virginia Tech and Miami. If Carolina can stack together a few more division wins, it will be hard to find an ACC Coastal team with enough wins to keep pace with UNC in the standings and own a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Heels. Last season felt like a huge missed opportunity for the program, which had a lot of talent and received a ton of preseason publicity. The 2021 Tar Heels crashed and burned, barely making a bowl game and then losing that bowl game to South Carolina. UNC seemed to be in a terrible position to win the division this year, but the implosions at Miami, Pittsburgh, and Virginia have all dramatically reshaped what is possible in the ACC Coastal. If the Tar Heels win this game, they're the clear-cut Coastal favorite at the midpoint of the season.
Here are the North Carolina-Duke NCAA Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: North Carolina-Duke Odds
North Carolina Tar Heels: -7 (-110)
Duke Blue Devils: +7 (-110)
Over: 67.5 (-110)
Under: 67.5 (-110)
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Why North Carolina Could Cover the Spread
Drake Maye is the best quarterback in this game and possibly the best offensive player in this game, though Josh Downs has an argument to make. Duke does not have the firepower to keep up with North Carolina if the Tar Heel offense is clicking. Duke has to make this game ugly, but if North Carolina scores more than 30 points, Duke is not going to match that total, and UNC might be able to blow the doors off the Devils.
Why Duke Could Cover the Spread
The coaching acumen of Mike Elko, who was formerly the defensive coordinator at Wake Forest and Notre Dame before he went to Texas A&M, has given him a lot of familiarity with ACC teams and ACC defenses. That familiarity could bear fruit in this game, and Duke's defense could create the ugly game it needs to produce in order to win.
Final North Carolina-Duke Prediction & Pick
Duke and Elko will find the right scheme and the right plan on defense to flummox North Carolina and keep this game very close the whole way.
Final North Carolina-Duke Prediction & Pick: Duke +7
