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The Frisco Bowl is set to take place Tuesday night! It's time to continue our college football odds series with a UTSA-San Diego State prediction and pick.
The UTSA Roadrunners are coming off a phenomenal regular season where they finished 12-1 and won the Ryan Conference USA Championship game. They defeated Western Kentucky 49-41 and are now looking for their first bowl win ever. Their only loss of the season came in a blowout to North Texas and also have a huge win against Illinois. They face a San Diego State team that establishes one of the best defenses in all of college football. UTSA is led by running back Sincere McCormick who ended the year with 298 carries for 1,479 yards. 300 carries for a college running back is an insane amount. That shows how good their offense has been all season. McCormick will not be suiting up for the game as he is preparing for the NFL Draft and will also forgo his senior season.
San Diego State is the No. 24 ranked team in the nation. They are coming off a brutal loss in the Mountain West Championship game to Utah State. SDSU's defense is one of the best in the country. They hold opponents to just 19.5 points per game and it was even lower before the title game a few weeks back. SDSU missed over 20 starters in the loss against Utah State, so it's tough to really say that Utah State really is the better team. Nonetheless, the Aggies played very well and upset SDSU in LA. Starting running back Greg Bell ended the year with 999 yards, which has to be on his mind. SDSU doesn't throw the ball often, so expect the game plan to be in the run game.
Here is how FanDuel set the UTSA-San Diego State line for Tuesday night.
College Football Odds: UTSA-San Diego State Odds
UTSA: +2.5 (-105)
SDSU: -2.5 (-115)
Over: 49.5 (-110)
Under: 49.5 (-110)
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Why USTA Could Cover The Spread
USTA has a really good chance of winning their first-ever bowl game. They come in as underdogs and that is ideal since they are facing a ranked opponent. USTA could very well be the better team, however. Their offense is far better than SDSU's and they average 37.8 points per game to SDSU's 26.6. The Roadrunners' defense also played well this year allowing 23.6 points per game. The team averages over 110 more yards per game than SDSU does so if that remains a common theme, then they will put up points.
UTSA is 9-4 against the spread this year which is a good sign. They have won four of their last five games and put up at least 27 points in all of them. This team will be fighting all night long to earn their first-ever bowl win. If they can shut down the SDSU run game and find ways to attack the defense, then we could very well see them on top when it's over.
Why SDSU Could Cover The Spread
SDSU can cover this spread if their defense comes back alive. They hold their opponents to less than 20 points per game which is elite for the NCAA. Prior to their loss to Utah State, they didn't allow their previous four opponents to score more than 21 points. If the offense can pick up the slack and find more ways to score, this team would be unstoppable. For most of the season, their defense was in conversations with No.1 Georgia (at the time).
SDSU is just 6-6-1 against the spread this year. That isn't a good sign for bettors but they should be back to full strength for the bowl game. They missed many players due to Covid-19 and other injuries against Utah State. We should see a better performance from them Tuesday night, but it will be against an unfamiliar opponent. If the SDSU offense can find ways to score then I think it will be too difficult for UTSA to keep it close with how dominant San Diego State's defense is.
Final UTSA-San Diego State Prediction & Pick
Believe it or not, I am taking UTSA to cover this spread and win their first bowl game. This is a very small school that hasn't had the recruits or coaching for a long time. That seemed to have changed over the past few seasons and we could see a rise in play with this team for years to come. If UTSA wins this game they will have a lot of momentum riding into next season. The Aztecs are going to keep this game close, but I think the dominant play on offense for the Roadrunners will be the deciding factor.
Final UTSA-San Diego State Prediction & Pick: UTSA +2.5 (-110)
