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Boyd and Mlodzinski face off in Pittsburgh in Game 2! The Cubs have been playing well, while the Pirates have struggled. Game 2 is huge for both teams in this series. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Cubs-Pirates prediction and pick.
Cubs-Pirates Projected Starters
Matthew Boyd vs. Carmen Mlodzinski
Matthew Boyd (2-2) with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed six runs on 10 hits with one walk and four strikeouts through six innings.
Away Splits: (0-2) 2.76 ERA
Carmen Mlodzinski (1-3) with a 6.95 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed three runs on five hits with one walk and four strikeouts through five innings.
Home Splits: (1-1) 6.00 ERA
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Pirates Odds
Chicago Cubs: -1.5 (-111)
Moneyline: -174
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-108)
Moneyline: +146
Over: 9 (+100)
Under: 9 (-122)
How to Watch Cubs vs. Pirates
Time: 6:40 pm ET/3:40 pm PT
TV: SportsNet PT/MARQ
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Cubs Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Cubs had an 83-79 record last season and barely missed the postseason, but this year, they have started the season with a 17-12 record. They have also lost two straight coming into this series. Behind the plate, this offense has been red-hot and jumped to the top three of the MLB. Their pitching was one of the best in the MLB last season, but they are in the middle of the MLB this season. On offense, Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Michael Busch, and Matt Shaw have been the biggest standouts for the Cubs, despite how inconsistent they have been. Shota Imanaga is a star pitcher for the Cubs, but Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon have also started the season playing well. The Cubs have the pieces for a solid season, are playing well, and should be able to stay consistent.
The Cubs are starting Matthew Boyd on the mound. He has a 2-2 record, a 2.54 ERA, and a 1.38 WHIP. He has allowed 11 runs on 29 hits with 10 walks and 24 strikeouts through 28.1 innings in his five appearances. He also has a K/BB ratio of 2.4. The Cubs have gone 2-3 in his five appearances this season. Boyd has been great on the mound for the Cubs. He also gets a great matchup against a Pirates offense that has struggled to do much of anything this season.
The Cubs' offense has been playing great recently. They have jumped to the third-best in the MLB with a team batting average of .260 after having a .242 average last season. Tucker has been on a red-hot run for this offense. He leads the team in batting average with .289, home runs with seven, RBI with 25, OBP at .397, and total hits with 33. This offense has been red-hot and should be able to dominate against Mlodzinski. It doesn't help in Pittsburgh, but it shouldn't matter much.
Why The Pirates Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Pirates finished last season with 76-86 and 11-18, losing three of their previous four games. They struggled behind the plate and on the mound last year. The bats have gotten off to a slow start this season, but the pitching has been average. Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Tommy Pham have been decent despite some of the team's struggles behind the plate. The pitching staff has talent, with Mitch Keller, Paul Skenes, and Andrew Heaney being big standouts. The Pirates have talent, but it has been a rough 2025 season. It does not get any easier against the Cubs due to how well they are playing coming into this game.
The Pirates are starting Mlodzinski on the mound. He has a 1-3 record, a 6.95 ERA, and a 1.82 WHIP. He allowed 17 runs on 31 hits with nine walks and 18 strikeouts through 22 innings across five starts. He also has a K/BB ratio of two after those starts. The Pirates have a 1-4 record through those starts, too, showcasing how much he has struggled. This is a bad matchup for Mlodzinski because the Cubs have been so good behind the plate, and it's not a matchup where he can get back on track.
The Pirates' offense has struggled this season. They are 26th in the MLB in team batting average at .224 after having a batting average of .234 last season. Despite their inconsistent play, Kiner-Falefa, Cruz, and Reynolds have been the biggest standouts. Cruz leads in home runs with eight, RBI with 16, and OBP at .366. Then, Kiner-Falefa leads in batting average at .280, and Reynolds leads in total hits with 27. This offense will struggle against Boyd on the mound for the Cubs due to his solid play.
Final Cubs-Pirates Prediction & Pick
The Cubs are the better and more trustworthy team. Boyd has the pitching advantage, and the Cubs are way better behind the plate. Chicago wins and covers on the road.
Final Cubs-Pirates Prediction & Pick: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-111)
