After a long break through the holidays, the UFC is finally back with their first Fight Night card of 2025 as we're set to bring you betting predictions and picks for each bout. This next one takes place in the Women's Flyweight (125) Division and features Ernesta Kareckaite of Lithuania taking on Brazil's Nicolle Caliari. Check out our UFC odds series for our Kareckaite-Caliari prediction and pick.

Ernesta Kareckaite (5-1-1) has gone 0-1 in the UFC following her contract win on Dana White's Contender Series. She lost her debut via unanimous decision to Dione Barbosa, marking the first loss of her relatively new pro career. She'll be the stern betting favorite as she continues to chase her first UFC win. Kareckaite stands 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach.

Nicolle Caliari (8-2) will be making her UFC debut on Saturday following a contract win on DWCS. She impressed with a Round 1 armbar submission in her audition fight and has notched each one of her professional wins by way of finish. She'll look for an exciting upset as she chases her fifth victory in a row. Caliari stands 5-foot-3 with a 62-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Vegas 101 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 101 Odds: Ernesta Kareckaite-Nicolle Caliari Odds

Ernesta Kareckaite: -258

Nicolle Caliari: +210

Over 2.5 rounds: -250

Under 2.5 rounds: +190

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Why Ernesta Kareckaite Will Win

Ernesta Kareckaite had a tough outing in her UFC debut as she faced a very aggressive, forward-pressing fighter in Dione Barbosa. Kareckaite comes from a kickboxing background and when she's able to fight at a comfortable range, she does a great job of mixing her combinations and landing leg kicks when they matter. However, she clearly struggled in getting back to her feet as her opponent was able to control her on the ground for much of the fight. Improvements in her grappling will have to be present if she wants a redemption win in this one.

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Kareckaite certainly does have some heavy hands with two wins coming by way of knockout and her type of power is unique for this weight class. She also has a very long frame and has the experience of seeing the judges' scorecards in her last fight, so that should give her a slight edge over the much smaller debuting opponent. Look for Kareckaite to open her striking combinations this time around as she fights more aggressively.

Why Nicolle Caliari Will Win

Nicolle Caliari made a big impression on Dana White's Contender Series with a strong armbar submission in the first round of the fight. Three of her wins have come by way of submission with five coming by knockout, so she certainly has a flair for finishing the fight and bringing the action to her opponents. She'll easily have the submission grappling advantage during this fight, so Caliari should completely focus her efforts on bringing Kareckaite to the ground and chaining her wrestling transitions.


All eight of Caliari's wins have come by way of finish and she's only seen a decision once in her pro career. It'll be interesting to see how she handles the jitters of making her UFC debut, but she's extremely tough in her nature and does a great job of overcoming adversity during fights. She may struggled with the massive height and reach difference between her and the opponent, but Caliari is bound to make this an exciting fight despite the betting odds.

Final Ernesta Kareckaite-Nicolle Caliari Prediction & Pick

Both women in this bout are extremely aggressive with their offense and both have the ability to finish a fight quickly. Ernesta Kareckaite favors more of a stand-up fight so she can showcase her striking combinations, while Nicolle Caliari will be looking to mix things up on the ground and work her jiu jitsu.

While Nicolle Caliari certainly has the greater finishing upside, the height and reach differential could make this an extremely tough fight for her to execute her game plan. Kareckaite sports an 86% takedown defense and she's likely to stop any desperation takedowns throughout this fight.

Ultimately, we like Ernesta Kareckaite's ability to control this fight with her striking and I believe this fight will be a different story in terms of her remaining on her feet. She has never lost via submission and I expect her to take this one 29-28 on the judges' scorecards.

Final Ernesta Kareckaite-Nicolle Caliari Prediction & Pick: Ernesta Kareckaite (-270); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-250)