It is the SEC Championship game in Atlanta, Georgia, on Saturday as Georgia faces off with Alabama. This is a rematch of an earlier match-up of the season, in which Alabama took a 24-21 victory over Georgia. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Georgia-Alabama prediction and pick.
Georgia comes into the game at 11-1 on the season. After a 3-0 start, including a come-from-behind overtime victory over Tennessee, the Bulldogs fell to the Crimson Tide. Since then, they have been perfect. Georgia has defeated Ole Miss, Texas, and Georgia Tech, while winning all but one game by seven or more points. The one game was a neutral sight game against rival Florida, in which they won 24-20.
Meanwhile, Alabama is 10-2 on the campaign. The Tide opened the season with a 31-17 loss on the road against Florida State. The team rebounded to win eight straight games, including four straight over ranked opponents: Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. The winning streak came to an end with a two-point loss to Oklahoma. They then defeated Eastern Illinois before a tight victory over Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss all finished with 7-1 records in SEC play. Alabama and Georgia advanced by having the higher strength of schedule in conference games.
College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Georgia vs. Alabama Odds
Georgia: -2.5 (-115)
Alabama: +2.5 (-105)
Over: 47.5 (-115)
Under: 47.5 (-105)
Georgia vs. Alabama Key Injuries
The SEC Student-Athlete Availability Report is available and updated before game time.
Georgia: WR Colbie Young (Out), TE Ethan Barbour (Out), RB Bo Walker (Out), DB Kyron Jones (Out), DL Jordan Hall (Out), Drew Bobo (Out)
Alabama: DB Kameron Howard (Out), LB Jah-Marien Latham (Out), DB Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. (Out), DL LT Overton (Out), RB Kevin Riley (Out), OL Mal Waldrep Jr. (Out), RB Jam Miller (Questionable), OL Kam Dewberry (Questionable), TE Josh Cuevas (Questionable), TE Danny Lewis Jr. (Questionable)
Georgia vs. Alabama Betting Trends
– Georgia is just 5-7 against the spread this season. Meanwhile, the team is 3-3 against the spread when favored by seven or fewer points
– Alabama is 8-4 against the spread this year, and 1-0 when an underdog. They won that game outright.
– Georgia is 3-4 against the spread at home this year, but 0-2 at neutral site games. That includes the game with Georgia Tech last week at this same facility.
– Alabama has covered in just two of five games on the road this season.
– The under has hit in seven of 12 Georgia games this season.
– The under has also hit in seven of 12 Alabama games this season, including in four straight games.
Keys to Georgia vs. Alabama
The focus of this game is going to be on quarterback play. Both teams have strong defensive units. Georgia is 12th in the nation in opponent points per game while ranking 12th in opponent yards per game. They are ranked seventh against the run and 46th against the pass. Meanwhile, Alabama has been nearly as good on defense. They are 13th in opponent points per game and 13th in opponent yards per game. The Tide is 40th against the run and 11th against the pass.
Georgia has been solid in the run game, with a 27th-ranked run attack, but Alabama has struggled in the run, sitting 114th. The run will help Georgia in this game, but it will be to open up the passing game. Georgia is 67th in the passing game this year, while Alabama is 17th. The difference in this game will be through the quarterback play.
Gunner Stockton leads the way for the Georgia offense. He has been solid this year. Stockton has passed for 2,535 yards and 20 touchdowns this season while throwing just five interceptions. He has also run for 403 yards and eight touchdowns this year. Still, he is coming off two less-than-stellar games. Against Charlotte, he completed 17 of 21 passes for 196 yards, but ran for just 11 yards, did not throw a touchdown, and was intercepted once. Then, last week against Georgia Tech, he was just 11 for 21 for 70 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He ran for 42 yards in the game.
Meanwhile, Ty Simpson has passed for 3,056 yards with 25 touchdowns and four interceptions. He has also run for 126 yards and two touchdowns on the season. Like Stockton, Simpson has not been at his best in the last two weeks. Against Eastern Illinois, he was just 11 of 16 for 147 yards and two interceptions. He was better against Auburn, completing 19 of 35 passes for 122 yards, but he had three passing touchdowns in the game.
Simpson was the better quarterback in the first meeting between the two. He passed for 276 yards and two touchdowns while running in a score in the first match-up. Meanwhile, Stockton completed just 13 of 20 passes for 130 yards and a touchdown. The team with the better quarterback will have the major upper hand in this game.
Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick
The odds in this game show how tight this game will be between the two foes. Georgia has a much better running game, which will help the offense. Meanwhile, Alabama has struggled in the running game, but their top running back, Jam Miller, is questionable, while the second running back, Kevin Riley, is out for the game.
Both teams have been great in the red zone this year, with Alabama sitting 20th in conversion rate on offense, and Georgia sitting 21st. Both teams are tied for 15th in defensive red zone conversion rate.
Georgia has been the better team on third downs, but by less than one percentage point. The big difference could be turnover margin. Alabama is 13th in FBS in turnover margin, while sitting 11th in giveaways and 29th in takeaways. Georgia is 66th in turnover margin, sitting 17th in giveaways, but 105th in takeaways this season. This is going to be a tight and low-scoring game.
Final Georgia vs. Alabama prediction and pick: Alabama +2.5 (-105) and Under 47.5 (-105)
