Indiana and Ohio State are the top two teams in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. They are the only two teams still undefeated, but one will leave the Big Ten Championship Game with a loss. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an Indiana-Ohio State prediction and pick.
Indiana is 12-0 on the campaign and has been dominant overall. They started 4-0, with all four wins by ten or more points, including a 63-10 win over Illinois. The next two games would be tight, with a five-point win against Iowa and a ten-point win against Oregon. After three more overpowering games, Indiana defeated Penn State by three points on the road. Since then, they have defeated Wisconsin and Purdue by a combined score of 87-10.
Meanwhile, Ohio State is also 12-0 and projected as the top seed in the College Football Playoffs. They opened the season against Texas with a 14-7 victory. Since then, it has been nothing short of perfection. They have won each of the last ten games by 14 or more points. The closest games since the victory over Texas were both 18-point victories, both on the road. One was against Washington, and the other was last week against Michigan.
College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Odds
Indiana: +4.5 (-112)
Ohio State: -4.5 (-108)
Over: 47.5 (-115)
Under: 47.5 (-105)
Indiana vs. Ohio State Key Injuries
Indiana: WR Lee Beebe Jr. (Leg- Out), DL Kellan Wyatt (Undisclosed- Out), K Brendan Franke (Undisclosed- Questionable), WR E.J. Williams Jr. (Undisclosed- Questionable), OG Drew Evans (Undisclosed- Questionable)
Ohio State: S Malik Hartford (Undisclosed- Questionable), WR Quincy Porter (Undisclosed- Questionable), DL Logan George (Undisclosed- Questionable)
Indiana vs. Ohio State Betting Trends
– Indiana is 6-6 against the spread. They are 3-2 away from home, but have not played at a neutral site.
– Ohio State is 10-1-1 against the spread this year. They are 4-1 agaisnt the spread on the road, but have not played at a neutral site.
– As an underdog, Indiana is 1-0 against the spread and won the lone game as an underdog.
– As a favorite of ten or fewer points, Ohio State is 3-0 against the spread.
– The over has hit in seven of 12 Indiana games this year.
– The under has hit in eight of 12 Ohio State games this year.
Keys to Indiana vs. Ohio State Matchup
For Indiana, is all about Fernando Mendoza and the offense. Indiana is third in the nation in points per game while sitting ninth in yards. They are ninth in the run and 50th in the pass. Mendoza is a Heisman candidate based on his play so far. He has passed for 2,758 yards with 32 touchdowns and just five interceptions this year. He also has scored six times on the ground, including in four of the last five games. The quarterback is also supported by the running back combination of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black. Hemby has rushed for 866 yards and six scores on the campaign. Black has 729 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Ohio State defense is the best in the nation. They are first in opponent yards per game and opponent points per game. They are also third against the run and first against the pass this season. If Ohio State can contain the best offense it has faced this season, it could run away with this game.
Regardless, if Indiana is going to pull off the upset, it will come by stopping this high-powered Ohio State offense. Ohio State is 17th in points per game while sitting 27th in yards per game. The Buckeyes have the 59th-ranked running attack and the 33rd-ranked passing attack. Julian Sayin leads the way for the Buckeyes. Saying has passed for 3,065 yards with 30 touchdowns this year. He has also been intercepted just five times while being sacked only six times.
Indiana does have a great defense to combat Sayin on the offense. They are third in opponent points per game and sixth in opponent yards per game. Further, Indiana ranks fourth against the run and 19th against the pass. If Indiana can shut down Sayin, Jeremiah Smith, and Carnell Tate, they will have a chance to pull the upset in this one.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick
These two teams are evenly matched. Indiana does have the better offense, but Ohio State is the best defense in the nation. Ohio State is the best in the nation on third downs this year, but Indiana is second. The Buckeyes are 22nd in red zone score, while Indiana is 27th. Ohio State does have an edge in red zone defense. They are third in the nation in red zone defense this year, while Indiana is 58th.
Indiana does have two other edges. Indiana is third in FBS in penalty yards per game, while Ohio State is 28th. In a game with two elite defensive units, every yard is going to matter.
The other major issue is going to be turnovers. Ohio State is 50th in turnover margin, but fourth in giveaways. Indiana is the best in the nation in turnover margin. They are tied with Ohio State and are fourth in giveaways, but force 2.2 takeaways per game. Michigan was also good at taking the ball away, and did it early in the game with Ohio State. They were only able to get three points out of that turnover, and gave up a chance to take control of the game. Indiana does not let those opportunities go by. A turnover is going to be the difference in this one, as Indiana covers in a tight affair.
Final Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction and pick: Indiana +4.5 (-112) and Under 47.5 (-105)
