We're back with another betting prediction and pick as the UFC 311 Prelims begin from the Intuit Dome in California. This opening bout takes place in the Lightweight (155) Division and features No. 15 Grant Dawson taking on Brazil's Diego Ferreira. Check the UFC odds series for our Dawson-Ferreira prediction and pick.

Grant Dawson (22-2-1) has gone 10-1-1 in the UFC since 2019. Despite his blistering run run through the division, he's just now earned his  ranking following a tough loss to Bobby Green just three fights ago. He'll look to win another convincing bout as he waits for a jump in his competition. Dawson stands 5-foot-10 with a 72-inch reach.

Diego Ferreira (19-5) has gone 10-5 inside the UFC since 2014. He recently went on a three-fight losing streak following success early on, but he's rebounded with back-to-back wins Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rebecki, both earning Performance of the Night bonuses. Ferreira will look to stun as the underdog once again. He stands 5-foot-9 with a 74-inch reach.

Here are the UFC 311 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 311 Odds: Grant Dawson-Diego Ferreira Odds

Grant Dawson: -265

Diego Ferreira: +215

Over 2.5 rounds: -140

Under 2.5 rounds: +110

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Why Grant Dawson Will Win

  • Last Fight: (W) Rafa Garcia– TKO (ground-and-pound, R2)
  • Last 5: 4-1
  • Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 13 SUB

Grant Dawson is coming into this fight off yet another dominant performance and he's slowly working back to where he was before his loss against Bobby Green. Dawson is one of the most active fighters on the roster and fought just three months ago, but he typically doesn't wear too much damage and is always willing to step in against anyone. He's also one of the better grapplers within the Lightweight Division and he'll certainly have a submission advantage over his opponent.

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Grant Dawson is also very good in managing the pace of a fight, while he may run into some resistance when dealing with a chaotic style like that of Ferreira. Dawson will opt towards a measured approach where he slowly closes the distance with his striking and works towards landing the takedown. He has a solid 38% conversion rate while attempting around four takedowns a fight, so expect the grappling to once again be a big part of his game plan here.

Why Diego Ferreira Will Win

  • Last Fight: (W) Mateusz Rebecki – TKO (ground-and-pound, R3)
  • Last 5: 2-3
  • Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 7 SUB

Diego Ferreira certainly hasn't been the most active fighter on the UFC roster since his debut back in 2014, but he's always guaranteed for an exciting fight with his unique style and determination. Following a three-fight losing streak, Ferreira made slight changes to his camps and it's resulted in back-t0-back knockout wins. While he fights with the same reckless attitude, he's become much more precise in finding the target and has greatly improved his cardio.

Both of Ferreira last two knockout wins have come in the later rounds of his fights, so it's promising to see him gaining steam and momentum as the fight wears on. Despite of where he starts or how far behind he falls, he'll remain dangerous and have a chance to win this one at any point. Ferreira will have to get creative with his striking to break the otherwise solid defense of Dawson's striking guard.

Final Grant Dawson-Diego Ferreira Prediction & Pick

We should have another exciting fight on our hands as both of these Lightweights are capable of ending the fight early. Grant Dawson has looked very impressive over his last two fights and he's continuing to use his elite jiu jitsu to his advantage against opponents. Diego Ferreira, however, will be a very dangerous striker to face and he'll continue to have bursts of activity even late into this fight.

While Grant Dawson is the significant betting favorite, Diego Ferreira could make this a close fight if he's able to implement unorthodox striking against his opponent. Dawson typically fights well behind a balanced rhythm, so Ferreira could benefit from disrupting that with flying knees or high kicks. Still, he'll have to be diligent about not getting caught on the group and in Dawson's chain wrestling game.

For our final prediction, we'll have to roll with Grant Dawson to get this win. However, Diego Ferreira stands to make this a much closer fight if he's able to throw caution to the wind and get a little reckless. Ultimately, I think Dawson will land a few takedowns and control this fight significantly from the ground while Ferreira has his occasional moments. We'll lean towards a Grant Dawson decision in this one.

Final Grant Dawson-Diego Ferreira Prediction & Pick: Grant Dawson (-265); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-140)