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The Grizzlies are spiraling into this game, while the Heat are playing exceptionally well. The Grizzlies are in playoff contention but are struggling down the stretch and face a red-hot Heat team coming into the game. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Grizzlies-Heat prediction and pick.
The Grizzlies are 44-32 but have lost four straight games. Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane are the big trio of scorers who need to step up the most in this game against the Heat. They have struggled recently and need to get back on track with a win. This would be a big win because the Heat are playing extremely well coming into this game in Miami.
The Heat have been up and down toward a 34-41 record this year and have won five straight coming into this matchup. Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler were the two biggest keys for the Heat, but Bam Adebayo emerged even more with Jimmy Butler gone, and Andrew Wiggins emerged and is also playing well. Still, thanks to Erik Spoelstra, the Heat are in the mix for the postseason, and a win here would be huge.
The Heat beat the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night.
Here are the Grizzlies-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Grizzlies-Heat Odds
Memphis Grizzlies: -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -190
Miami Heat: +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +160
Over: 225 (-112)
Under: 225 (-110)
How To Watch Grizzlies vs. Heat
Time: 7:30 pm ET/4:30 pm PT
TV: TNT/TruTV/Max
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Grizzlies Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Grizzlies' offense has been one of the best in the NBA all season and has been highly consistent. They are the second-best scoring offense, averaging 122 points per game, seventh in field-goal percentage at 48%, and 12th in three-point shooting at 36.7% from behind the arc.
Five Grizzlies players are averaging more than double digits in scoring. Morant has been the most dominant player on offense, averaging 22.7 points per game. He is also the engine that makes everything go on this offense, averaging 7.4 per game. Jackson Jr. is second in scoring, averaging 22.4, and then Bane rounds out the top three, averaging 18.8 points per game.
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Morant, Jackson Jr., and Bane make all of this work on offense. Memphis has a great offense, but they will have issues scoring on a Miami defense that has been elite.
The Heat have been inconsistent and unimpressive on offense this year. They are 25th in scoring at 109.2 points per game, 18th in field goal percentage at 46.3%, and 14th in three-point percentage at 36.5%.
Seven different Heat players average over double digits in scoring, with Tyler Herro being the most consistent scorer on the team, averaging 23.7 points per game. Wiggins and Adebayo are next up in scoring, averaging 19.9 and 17.7 points per game. Tyler Herro is also the engine that makes the entire Miami offense run and leads the team in assists, averaging 5.6 per game.
Herro, Adebayo, and Wiggins are the best players on the roster now that Butler is no longer on the team. This Miami offense's balance will be the key against a Grizzlies defense that has struggled to find much consistency all season.
Why the Heat Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Grizzlies' defense has been a step behind their electric offense this season and has had issues with consistency. They are 25th in points allowed at 117.3 per game, fifth in total field-goal percentage defense at 45.7% from the field, and 18th in three-point defense at 36.3% from behind the arc.
The Grizzlies' frontcourt has been a massive strength this season. Zach Edey has emerged as the team leader in rebounding, averaging 7.7 per game. Two players average at least one block, and Jackson is the team leader with 1.6 per game, just ahead of Edey. This perimeter defense has also been excellent, with five players averaging at least one steal. Morant and Scotty Pippen Jr. are tied for the team lead in steals with 1.3 per game.
The Grizzlies have the pieces for a solid defense, but consistency has been an issue. They get a decent matchup against the Heat and then underwhelming offense, so this matchup is an X-factor in Miami.
The Heat's defense has been great this year and is one of the best defenses in the NBA. They are seventh in scoring at 109.9 points per game, 13th in field goal percentage at 46.5%, and 13th in three-point percentage at 35.9%.
This frontcourt has had issues outside of Adebayo. He has been the best player down low, leading the team with 9.7 rebounds per game. Then, Wiggins is the block leader, averaging one per game. Their perimeter and on-ball defense have been elite in comparison to their frontcourt. Eight players are averaging at least one steal, and Adebayo is also the leader, averaging 1.3 per game.
Despite the frontcourt's weakness, the Heat's biggest strength is their defense. Even without Jimmy Butler, the Heat should find some success in this game against the Grizzlies, and they have the defense to slow them down enough.
Final Grizzlies-Heat Prediction & Pick
The vibes around Memphis are off after firing Taylor Jenkins, and they are now spiraling. They are facing a red-hot Heat team in Miami. The Heat win and cover at home to extend their streak to seven games and Memphis's losing streak to five.
Final Grizzlies-Heat Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat +4.5 (-110)
