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The Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds begin a two-game interleague series today. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Guardians-Reds prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Guardians enter this game after losing two of three to the Rays over the weekend. They were on the verge of being swept until the rookie Tanner Bibee stepped up on the mound for the Guardians. He went seven innings and gave up just two runs in a winning effort. He was helped by a four-hit, one home run, and two RBI performance from Andres Gimenez, while Gabriel Arias added a home run in a 9-2 victory for Cleveland. The Guardians will welcome back Jose Ramirez from his suspension in this series, while they attempt to make up ground in the AL Central. At 57-62, the Guardians are just 4.5 games out of first in the division.
Meanwhile, the Reds took two of three from the Pirates over the weekend. With the two wins, the Reds are 62-57 on the season. That places them just 3.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. It also places them tied with the Chicago Cubs just one game behind the Marlins in the Wild Card chase. The Reds still have a great chance to make the playoffs, but at just 3-7 in their last ten, they need to turn things around soon.
Here are the Guardians-Reds MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Guardians-Reds Odds
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+146)
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-176)
Over: 9.5 (+100)
Under: 9.5 (-122)
How To Watch Guardians vs. Reds
TV: BSGL/BSOH
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
The Guardians' offense showed some life over the weekend. While they lost two of three games, they scored 22 runs in the three games. That is a major departure from the series before in which they scored just six runs in four games. On the season the Guardians are 27th in runs scored this year, while sitting 17th in batting average, 23rd in on-base percentage, and 27th in slugging. With team RBI leader, Josh Naylor, still out with an oblique strain, it will be nice to get back Jose Ramirez. Ramirez leads the team in home runs and is second in RBIs. He has struggled some in August though. Ramirez has not hit a home run yet but does have two doubles. He is hitting just .156 on the month, with two RBIs and a run scored.
Still, the Guardians have some bats heading into this game hot, starting with Andres Gimenez. He was the hero in the win over the Rays, and in his six games played in the last week, he has been seeing the ball well. Over the last week, he is hitting .435 with a .480 on-base percentage. His great contact has been going all month. This month he is hitting .357 with a .426 on-base percentage. In that time he has hit two home runs and five doubles leading to five RBIs. Gimenez has also been producing the base bath. He has stolen three bases and scored seven times this month.
In the last week, multiple guys have been hitting well. Oscar Gonzalez, Kole Calhoun, and Steven Kwan join Gimenez in all hitting over .300 in the last week. Gonzalez is hitting .389 in the last week with four doubles and three RBIs. Calhoun is hitting .368, but getting on base at a .429 rate. He does not have an extra-base hit, but has driven in two and scored twice. Steven Kwan has hit two triples and a double on his way to a .304 batting average in the last week. He has also driven in two and scored twice.
It will be Logan Allen on the hill for the Guardians today. He comes in with a 5-5 record and a 3.55 ERA. In his two starts this month, he has been solid. He has pitched 11 innings and given up just three runs, good for a 2.45 ERA. Last time out it was five innings of work, and the only run given up was a solo home run. Still, he took the loss as the Guardians were shut out.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds' offenses have sputtered as they have lost nine of their last 12 games. They have scored 55 runs in the 12 games, good for 4.58 runs per game. That is just below their season average of 4.84 runs per game, but if you just focus on the nine losses, they have scored just 3.89 runs per game. That is nearly a run less per game. On the season the Reds are tied for sixth in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 14th in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage, and 13th in slugging. Recently the major run production from the team has come from young players and platoon players.
Luke Maile, the platoon catcher, has driven in five runs in the last week while playing just three games. He is hitting .375 in those games with a home run and a double. He has also grabbed an on-base percentage of .545 and scored a run. Rookie Christian Encarncation-Strand has four RBIs in the last week. He has a home run in there as well. Still, he is hitting just .222 in the last week, and the only run he has scored was on his home runs. Elly De La Cruz also has four RBIs in the last week. He has done this while hitting .261 with a triple and a home run. De La Cruz has also stolen a base and scored twice in the last week.
Graham Ashcraft will take the mound for the Reds today. He is 6-7 on the year with a 4.95 ERA. Like Logan Allen, he has been pitching well in August, but his quality pitching stretches heads back to the end of June. Since June 30th, Allen has made eight starts. In those starts, he has given up more than two runs, and in that game, he went eight innings. He has pitched 51 innings in those eight starts while giving up just 11 runs. That is good for a 1.94 ERA in his last eight starts.
Final Guardians-Reds Prediction & Pick
At an initial look, this is a great pitching match-up. Both Logan Allen and Graham Ashcraft come in hot. There are a few differences though. Ashcraft has done it for longer and is one of the top three pitchers in the National League since the All-Star break. Allen has only two starts of quality. The only downside Ashcraft has had is his walks are up. The Guardians are 25th in the majors in walks this year, so that is a non-factor. Meanwhile, Allen gives up a .193 batting average to left-handed batters. The Reds will send out nine batters from the right side of the box though. Allen has a .267 opponent batting average to righties while being one of the worst in expected slugging and strike-out percentage against right-handed batters. The Reds will score in this one. Take them and the runs.
Final Guardians-Reds Prediction & Pick: Reds +1.5 (-176)
