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Kirk Ferentz serves his one-game suspension as Iowa faces Illinois State. It is time to continue our college football odds series with an Illinois State-Iowa prediction and pick.
Illinois State finished their 15th season under head coach Brock Spack last year. Illinois State has not had the same level of success in recent years. After winning the conference in 2014 and 2015, while making the playoffs four times in six years, they have struggled as of late. Last year, they would finish just 6-5, the second straight year with that record.
Meanwhile, Iowa has been solid since Kirk Ferentz took over. They have had just two losing seasons. The first was in 2006 when they lost the Alamo Bowl to fall to 607. The other was 2012, when they were 4-8. Last year was Iowa's third ten-win season in the last five years. Iowa had just two regular season losses. They fell to Penn State 31-0 and then to Minnesota 12-10. Iowa would make it to the Big Ten title game, where they would lose 26-0 to Michigan. Then, they fell 35-0 to Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl.
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Illinois State-Iowa Odds
Illinois State: +22.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +1400
Iowa: -22.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -4000
Over: 40.5 (-110)
Under: 40.5 (-110)
How to Watch Illinois State vs. Iowa
Time: 12:00 PM ET/ 9:00 AM PT
TV: Big Ten Network
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
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Why Illinois State Could Cover The Spread/Win
Illinois State will be breaking in a new quarterback to start the year. Zack Annexstad has graduated after passing for over 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns. Tommy Rittenhouse has experience though. He started games in 2022 and appeared multiple times last season. Last year, he passed for 467 yards on 46 of 69 passing. He also had three touchdowns and did not have an interception. Jake Rubley will be competing for the job with Rittenhouse. He spent the last two years at Kansas State, passing just six times for 47 yards and an interception.
Illinois State also returns its top three receivers from last year. Daniel Sobkowicz led the way with 69 receptions for 923 yards and ten scores. Cam Grandy, the tight end, had 63 receptions for 622 yards and a score. Further, Eddie Kasper added 429 yards and 48 receptions with one score. Still, the focus for this offense is the running game. That is led by Mason King. King has 983 yards last year and 13 touchdowns. His running mate, Cole Mueller, is also back after running for 418 yards and five scores last year.
On defense, Amir Abdullah is back. Last year he was named an All-American after having 14 tackles for a loss, plus 9.5 sacks. Further, he forced two fumbles. Keondre Jackson is back in the secondary, after leading the team with 72 tackles last year. He also had an interception, recovered a fumble, and scored once last year. He is joined by LaVoise-Deonate McCoy at linebacker. McCoy had 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, and two interceptions while sitting third on the team in tackles last year.
Why Iowa Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Iowa offense will be looking to show they have improved under first-year offensive coordinator Tim Lester. The former Western Michigan head coach spent last year with the Green Bay Packers as an analyst and now tries to improve a dreadful offense. Iowa averaged just 15.4 points per game last year, and some of those points were from the defense. Cade McNamara is back after tearing his ACL last year. He passed for just 505 yards and four scores, with three interceptions before going down for the year.
Iowa is also missing their top two receivers from last year. Erick All, the tight end, and Nico Ragaini are both gone, but that is just 554 yards and three scores to replace. The top returning receiver is Kaleb Brown, who went for 215 yards and one score. Still, they have their top two running backs returning. Leshon Williams is back, and he had 821 yards and a score last year. Joining him in the backfield is Kaleb Johnson, who ran for 463 yards and three scores last year.
The hallmark of Iowa football is the defense. Linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jason are back. Higgins had 171 tackles, two sacks, an interception, a forced fumble, and two fumble recoveries last year. Further, Nick Jackson had 110 tackles with four sacks. He also forced two fumbles last year. Still, Iowa is replacing Cooper DeJean, but Sebastian Castro is back. He broke up eight passes and had three interceptions last year. Further, he scored a touchdown last year.
Final Illinois State-Iowa Prediction & Pick
Iowa not only needs to figure out their offense, they need to figure out who will be the acting head coach with Kirk Ferentz suspended for the game. While Illinois State will struggle to score against the high-quality defense of Iowa, they should be able to slow down an Iowa attack on the defensive side of the ball. With a spread of 22.5 points and an over of 40.5, that is expecting Iowa to put up over 30 points. They have scored over 30 just four times in the last three years. With that, take the under in this one.
Final Illinois State-Iowa Prediction & Pick: Under 40.5 (-110)
