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With the semi-finals set for the 2023 FIBA World Cup, let's not forget the 5 to 8 classification bracket that will take over Thursday's slate of games, which includes a showdown between two teams that exceeded expectations in the tournament — Italy and Latvia. Check out our FIBA World Cup odds series for our Italy-Latvia prediction and pick.
Italy was halted in its tracks by an angry United States team that just suffered its first loss in the tournament at the hands of Lithuania. Led by Mikael Bridges' 24 points (on 8-of-11 shooting), Team USA absolutely pummeled Italy, 100-63, on Tuesday to officially move into the semi-final of the 2023 FIBA World Cup. The Italians were led by Simone Fontecchio, who scored 18 points on 6-of-13 shooting before fouling out in 24 minutes. Stefano Tonut, who scored 11 points, was the only other Italian to score in double-figures.
Meanwhile, Latvia's magical run in the 2023 FIBA World Cup continued all the way to the final buzzer of their game against Germany. Unfortunately, the fairytale ending wasn't meant to be after Davis Bertans, who scored 20 points and made six three-pointers, had his Jimmy Butler moment and missed the potential game-winning three-pointer that would have booked Latvia's ticket into the semis. It was an absolute heartbreaker as Germany star Dennis Schroder was on an absolute freezer on Wednesday, as he shot 4-of-26 from the field. Arturs Zagars led the way for the Germans with 24 points and eight assists on 9-of-17 shooting and four three-pointers.
Here are the 2023 FIBA World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2023 FIBA World Cup Odds: Italy-Latvia Odds
Italy: -1.5 (-111)
Latvia: +1.5 (-115)
Over: 167.5 (-115)
Under: 167.5 (-111)
How to Watch Italy vs. Latvia
Stream: ESPN+, Courtside 1891
Time: 4:45 AM ET/ 1:45 AM PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Italy Will Cover The Spread
As the No. 10 ranked team in FIBA, Italy enters this game as slight favorites over Latvia. The Italians have gone 4-2 so far in this tournament and are coming off an absolute beatdown at the hands of the United States. With that, Italy heads into Thursday with extra motivation to erase the bitter taste from that defeat and end their 2023 FIBA World Cup stint on a high note.
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As he has done all tournament long, Simone Fontecchio figures to lead this team for their final game of the World Cup. With an average of 18.3 points per game, Fontecchio has been Italy's most consistent scorer throughout the tournament. He is also the best scorer among both squads.
Stefano Tonus, as he did versus the United States, has also been the most consistent in terms of providing Fontecchio with support. In six games, Tonut has averaged 11.3 points.
Italy's advantage here is the fact that they have more rest over their opponents. Latvia just played on Wednesday and was in a grueling and physical game. So fatigue could play a factor. Latvia is also dealing with so many emotions that they may find difficulty in bouncing back after such a devastating loss.
Why Latvia Will Cover The Spread
Latvia may enter Thursday's game as slight underdogs. But as they have done all tournament, they are able to hang with the other powerhouses in the World Cup. That loss to Germany was heartbreaking as one shot made the difference in making the semi-finals. Prior to Wednesday, Latvia's only loss came against Canada. They took down the two finalists from the 2019 FIBA World Cup — Spain and France — en route to making the final eight in this tournament.
The Latvians are also coming off a relatively good game, which bodes well for their momentum and rhythm heading into Thursday. As a team, they shot 44.6 percent from the field and 38.4 percent from beyond the arc against Germany.
Latvia has also been a more balanced team in this tournament so far. Six players average at least 8.0 points per game, with Arturs Zagars leading the pack with 14.2 points per game. Davis Bertans is a close second with 13.7 points per game, while Rolands Smits is just right behind with 13.5 points per game. Andrejs Grazulis (12.5 PPG) is the other double-digit scorer for the Latvians.
While the loss to Germany could still be rattling Latvia right now, the Baltic country could use that defeat as motivation to end their 2023 FIBA World Cup on a high note.
Final Italy-Latvia Prediction & Pick
Pick Latvia to win and cover for this game. They have been too good in this tournament and Thursday shouldn't be any different. The fact that they were able to hang and almost take down Germany is already a feat in itself. The Germans should enter this game more motivated than rattled from that emotional defeat.
Final Germany-Latvia Prediction & Pick: Latvia: +1.5 (-115)
