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Jack Draper plays Carlos Alcaraz in the fourth round of the 2025 Australian Open. Our Australian Open odds series has our Draper-Alcaraz prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Draper Alcaraz.
Carlos Alcaraz has a big week in front of him. He forges ahead into the second week of the Australian Open, where Jannik Sinner is the reigning champion and the top seed. Sinner has what Alcaraz wants. Alcaraz has won three of the four majors, but not the Australian Open. In 2024, Sinner won the two hardcourt major championships and Alcaraz won the “natural surface majors” on clay at Roland Garros and on grass at Wimbledon. Frankly, if you asked the two players about 2025, and you told them they would swap majors this year, they would probably love it. They would both own majors at all four stops and on all three surfaces. They would complete their resumes in a significant way. (To be candid, Alcaraz losing both Roland Garros and Wimbledon might cut a little too deep, but he would still view a two-major year with trophies in Australia and the United States as a very strong and productive season.)
So, is Alcaraz ready to conquer Australia? He knows that Novak Djokovic is not quite as strong as he once was. He knows that Sinner is feeling the pressure of being the No. 1 seed. He knows that Alexander Zverev is consistently unable to handle the pressure of the latter stages of a major. He knows that Taylor Fritz, while a very good player, would not be expected to take down the Spaniard at the end of this tournament. Alcaraz can sit here, just before the Round of 16, and assert with considerable confidence and justification that he is the man to beat Down Under. Now it's a matter of proving that he is worthy of that distinction and can complete his set of major tournament trophies.
Standing in Alcaraz's way is Jack Draper, who made the U.S. Open semifinals last year before losing to Sinner. Draper is a bulldog competitor. He might not always have his best stuff, but he gets his teeth into a match and does not let go. Opponents have to finish him off. He puts in the effort required to force the other man on the opposite side of the net to make the last few winning shots. That is Draper's best quality. Can he make this a bare-knuckle match in which it is not easy for Alcaraz to finish off points? Let's see what happens if Alcaraz does not have a smooth ride in the first set and a half.
Here are the Draper-Alcaraz Australian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Australian Open Odds: Draper-Alcaraz Odds
Game Spread:
Draper +7.5 (-110)
Alcaraz -7.5 (-122)
Moneyline:
Draper +800
Alcaraz -1400
To Win First Set:
Draper +340
Alcaraz -460
Total Games In Match:
Over 31.5 (-110)
Under 31.5 (-120)
Total Games Won:
Draper over 12.5 (-110)
Draper under 12.5 (-122)
Alcaraz over 19.5 (+116)
Alcaraz under 19.5 (-154)
How to Watch Australian Open
Time: TBA
TV: ESPN2, ESPN Plus
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Jack Draper Will Win
Carlos Alcaraz is in good form, but not great form. Relative to the spread here, Alcaraz will win one set 6-2 but then win another set 7-5 or 7-6. If Draper can play two sets really close, he could get blown out in the third set but still cover the large 7.5-game spread. 7-5, 7-6, 6-2 is a Draper cover, not an Alcaraz cover.
Why Carlos Alcaraz Will Win
Alcaraz is ready to win this Australian Open. You know he wants it badly, given that he has never won it. Alcaraz has already won three of the four major tournaments. You know he's coming for the one trophy he doesn't yet have. If he plays his best, he wipes out Draper by nine or more games, something like 4, 3 and 2.
Final Draper-Alcaraz Prediction & Pick
We think Alcaraz wins, but Draper could easily fit within a 7.5-game spread. We don't really like any angle here. Pass.
Final Draper-Alcaraz Prediction & Pick: Draper +7.5
