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Jacksonville State football is making the jump to the FBS ranks this year. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a Jacksonville State football win total prediction and pick.
Rich Rodriguez makes his return to the FBS ranks in Conference USA as the Jacksonville State Gamecocks move from the FCS ASUN Conference up to CUSA. Rodriguez has had a lot of success at the FBS level. He took West Virginia from a three-win team to a top-ten squad in his last three years. Rich Rod then brought Michigan to a bowl game, but that was not good enough with high expectations there. He then made Arizona an annual bowl team before being fired.
Jacksonville State has also been a successful program since joining the FCS Ranks. They have won ten conference titles since 1996 and played in the National Title game in 2015. They also bring two amazing defensive ends to Conference USA. Chris Hardie and J-Rock Swain know how to get to the quarterback and will cause a lot of pressure. The Gamecocks also have a secondary that can create turnovers. Meanwhile, the offense will be running the ball a lot. They bring a group of great running backs led by Anwar Lewis. They will most likely be starting a redshirt freshman at QB, but Te'Sean Smoot is extremely quick, and the old speed-option offense of the Rodriguez West Virginia days may be back.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Jacksonville State Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 4.5 wins: +112
Under 4.5 wins: -138
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Why Jacksonville State Can Win 4.5 Games
It all starts in week zero for Jacksonville State. They will host their first Conference USA game against UTEP. This is a very winnable game. UTEP has a top offensive line, but no one is around to use that line. The focus for them will be the defense. If Jacksonville State can run the ball against one of the best-run defenses in the conference, the tone will be set for the year. Currently, Jacksonville State is a 1.5-point favorite in the game. They will then face East Tennessee State, and could easily start 2-0. This was not a good FCS school last year and does not show any signs of improvement.
The next two non-conference games most likely will provide losses. Coastal Carolina may have lost a lot, including their coach, but they are a better program with much more depth than the Gamecocks. Eastern Michigan is a winnable game. Samson Evans returns in the backfield. He ran for 1,166 yards last year and five scores. Joining him in the backfield is Jaylon Jackson, who not only is a solid change of pace back, but a great kick returner. It could be close and a win would almost guarantee five, but most likely it is a loss. They get back on track against Sam Houston. They beat this squad last year by a score of 42-17. Sam Houston will be better this year, but not good enough to win this game.
The schedule then gets very difficult with four of the next five games most likely seeing the Gamecocks as huge underdogs. Middle Tennessee and Liberty are both at home, but both have much more talented rosters. Middle Tennessee sits 37th in returning production and could have the best defense in CUSA. Liberty brings in Jamey Chadwell to join the program taking over for Hugh Freeze. They have a quality offense, led by some great running backs. On defense, Liberty is one of the best at taking away the ball and getting to the quarterback. Western Kentucky is the top of the class of CUSA, but they will beat FIU with a defense that will struggle this year.
After a loss to South Carolina, Jacksonville State will need two wins to get to five. They get there. First is Louisiana Tech. The defensive line for the Gamecocks will control the game, and get them the win, before finishing the season with a win over New Mexico State.
Why Jacksonville State Can Not Win 4.5 Games
First, it starts with UTEP. UTEP has the best offensive line in the conference and one of the best-run defenses. Jacksonville State has a small defensive line, that while quick can be manhandled by UTEP. UTEP is projected to win between five and six games. The difference between them going to a bowl game or not most likely rests on this game. If the Gamecocks cannot get the running game going, this is a loss.
Now at 1-3 after losses to Coastal Carolina and Eastern Michigan, Sam Houston is up. Sam Houston went all in for this year, last year. They sat their best players for the entire season in preparation for the jump-up. They have a solid offensive line and are one of the best wide receivers in the conference. This may be too much for the Gamecocks to handle. The Sam Houston offense was bad in this game last year, but with so many stars returning to the field, they will score a lot more.
FIU may be last in odds to win the conference, but they were picked to finish last just a year ago and did not. Mike MacIntyre has always found a way to win those close games in which the spread is near even. Rich Rodriguez has often found a way to lose those games. Louisiana Tech brings back a ton on offense though, and while the defense for Gamecocks should improve, they will not have enough to slow down Louisana Tech.
Finally, New Mexico State. Jerry Kill is a winner and that has rubbed off on Diego Pavia. Watching their bowl game last year, Pavia single-handedly won that game. He has a great arm, and if a defense is not careful, he will take off and get great yards. Unless the quick defensive line can get to Pavia, he will have a great day in this game. This could also be a situation that a win in this last game of the season gets them a bowl game. Kill will have his guys ready to get that win, just like he did when they had to find a last-second opponent last year to get to bowl eligibility.
Final Jacksonville State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The jump from FCS to FBS is a tough one. FCS, even at the group of five levels, is bigger, faster, and stronger. Bigger may be the keyword. Jacksonville State relies on undersized guys on their defense. Their best linebacker is the size of most smaller safeties. Their two defensive ends, while quick, are some of the smallest in the conference. This is going to lead to a lot of losses. Jacksonville State gets its first win against East Tennessee State but only finds two more. They will win against Sam Houston again, and will also take out FIU, but that is all for the Gamecocks as they finish 3-9.
Final Jacksonville State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 4.5 (-132)
