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The Dallas Mavericks will meet the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals. We're here to share our NBA Finals odds series and make a Jayson Tatum NBA Finals points per game prediction and pick.
Tatum is looking to win his first NBA Championship and help the Celtics break their tie with the Lakers and win championship number 18. This is Tatum's second appearance in the Finals and they lost in his first outing in six games against the Warriors. This is redemption for not just him, but also Jaylen Brown to finally win a title.
Tatum has been great in the postseason. He is scoring 26 points per game, which leads the Celtics overall, and is second in this series behind only Luka Doncic. Tatum has a massive skillset where he can shoot, drive to the hoop, and post up playing down low.
Thisshould be an interesting matchup because the Mavericks were not a good defensive team during the regular season, but became one in the postseason. The Mavericks have athletes and while Luka Doncic might see some time on Tatum, his primary defender will be PJ Washington, who has been an x-factor for Dallas in the postseason. Tatum is the key for Boston, so this is a huge matchup.
Here are the NBA Finals odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Finals Odds: Jayson Tatum Points Per Game Odds
Over: 27.5 points (-102)
Under: 27.5 points (-128)
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Why Jayson Tatum Will Hit the Over
Jayson Tatum had a lot of pressure on him coming into this postseason. In the first series against the Heat, Tatum only hit over this number once in Game 2 when he had 28 points. He scored at least 20 in each game except Game Five when he had 16, but the Celtics still closed it out and finally overcame the team that had haunted them.
Tatum played much better against the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. He had his worst scoring output in Game 1 at 18 points and then in a five-game series he hit over this number twice. He scored 33 points in both Game 3 and Game 4. He helped the Celtics put the Cavaliers away in Game 5 when he scored 25 points.
Then when the lights were brightest in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Pacers, Tatum helped the Celtics win the series in a sweep. Tatum hit over this number in two out of the four games. He scored 36 points in Game 1 and Game 3 and then scored 26 points in Game 4 to close out the Pacers and advance to the NBA Finals.
Tatum is the engine that makes the Celtics go despite all the depth they have in the lineup from Jaylen Brown to Derrick White and Kristaps Porzingis to Jrue Holiday. He is shooting 44.2% from the field and needs to improve his shooting from behind the arc with it only at 29%. If he does that, he will be almost unstoppable in this series against the Mavericks.
The Celtics need him to show up more than any player as the leader and the Celtic with the most pressure. They had the disappointment from two years ago, so expect that motivation to push him over the top in this matchup for Game 1. Tatum has heard everything from his critics and this is the perfect time for him to silence them and take over this game.
Why Jayson Tatum Will Hit the Under
Tatum is the focal point for the Celtics, but they have so much depth. He has only hit over this number in five out of the 14 total games they have played in this postseason. He only hit over it once against the Heat and then twice against both the Cavaliers and the Pacers.
He has not had any bad games this postseason in comparison. He has hit over 20 points in 12 of 14 games this postseason. The only two he did not were in Game 5 against the Heat and Game 1 against the Cavaliers where he scored 16 and 18 points respectively. Still, the Celtics won both games easily which speaks to their depth.
Tatum will hit under this point total mainly because of the depth of the Celtics on offense. Five different players average over double digits with each one capable of going off on their own, and that includes Tatum. The depth of the Celtics is what separates them as a team, but it could also hinder Tatum in this matchup.
Final Jayson Tatum Points Per Game Prediction
Jayson Tatum should hit over this number in scoring to make a statement in his second NBA Finals appearance. The game is in Boston which should also help and fuel not just him but the rest of the Celtics team. The fanbase already hates Kyrie Irving and will go after Luka Doncic over the talk between him and Tatum. That should fuel Tatum, so expect him to use it to his advantage and have a huge game and hit over this number.
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Final Jayson Tatum Points Per Game Prediction: Jayson Tatum Over 27.5 points (-102)
