The UFC is back at the Apex for another Fight Night card as we're ready to bring you another betting prediction and pick for an upcoming bout in the Women's Strawweight (115) Division. UFC veteran Jessica Penne will take on New Jersey's own Elise Reed. Check out our UFC odds series for our Penne-Reed prediction and pick.
Jessica Penne (14-7) has gone 3-5 in the UFC since debuting in 2013. After back-to-back wins, she's lost two fights heading into this one against Emily Ducote (U-DEC) and Tabatha Ricci (SUB). She'll be the slight betting underdog as she looks to notch her first win since 2021. Penne stands 5'5″ with a 67-inch reach.
Elise Reed (7-4) has gone 3-4 since joining the UFC in 2021. Since opening UFC debut with a loss, Reed has alternated wins and losses up to this point. Her most recent bout was a submission loss to Loopy Godinez, so she's on pace for a win here as the betting favorite. Reed stands 5'3″ with a 63-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 99 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 99 Odds: Jessica Penne-Elise Reed Odds
Jessica Penne: +150
Elise Reed: -180
Over 2.5 rounds: -280
Under 2.5 rounds: +210
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Free Trial)*
Why Jessica Penne Will Win
Jessica Penne is coming into this fight following tough back-t0-back losses against formidable competition. Both opponents were about 10 years younger than Penne and it was clear she had trouble keeping up with some of the athleticism during those fights. Still, Penne looks to be in some of the best shape of her career and she'll likely have a chance to work some of her grappling during this one. She has eight wins by submission and if she's able to tie-up with a striker like Reed, she could have some openings to find another choke or lock.
Flipping the script!
💥 @JessicaPenne gets the armbar in RD 1! #UFC265 pic.twitter.com/Cc6ktjlT2m
— UFC (@ufc) August 8, 2021
Jessica Penne will need to focus on her defense and avoid the straight shots down the middle from Reed throughout this fight. Her opponent is very active with her kicking game and will throw to the body, opening opportunities for Penne to catch the leg and bring the fight to the ground. Once there, Penne has a stern edge in grappling and can force Reed into bad positions knowing she's susceptible to the submission finish.
Why Elise Reed Will Win
Elise Reed is a very strong opponent, but she's struggled to find consistency through her UFC tenure as she's gone up and down, failing to notch consecutive wins through seven UFC appearance. The good news for Reed, however, is that she's coming in off a loss and has yet to drop back-to-back fights in the same instance. She is primarily a kickboxer and favors no-frills striking up the middle. She likes to poke her jab and will usually follow it up with an attack from her legs. She also has deceptive power and can stun opponents if she lands clean.
Nice Karate-style intercepting right hand after parrying the front kick by Elise Reed. pic.twitter.com/ZFHPYwa1x2
— Feño 🏴 (@fenoxsky) October 13, 2024
Elise Reed fights with an active karate-style stance and is very adept at countering punches with power of her own. While she tends to keep her hands low, Reed is usually capable of countering quickly and will work to do so against Penne. She'll have to work around a slight discrepancy in reach, but given her karate and muay thai background, Reed should have no problems closing the distance and getting within striking range.
Final Jessica Penne-Elise Reed Prediction & Pick
This will be a close matchup between differing styles as we see a primary grappler in Jessica Penne take on a karate-style striker in Elise Reed. While Penne is known for her submission work, she's put a ton of focus on her striking over the last few camps and we've seen improvements from there over her last fights. However, Elise Reed will have a big power advantage and hold the greater upside of a knockout win in this one.
Elise Reed has been submitted twice up to this point and doesn't typically do her best work on the ground. Defending takedowns and submissions will have had to been a big focal point for her camp as she can expect a wrestling-heavy attack from Penne. Penne, on the other hand, will want to use as much of her reach as possibly in jabbing Reed and creating a safe distance from which to strike.
For our final prediction, we have to side slight with Elise Reed and her upside as far as the striking is concerned. She's the much harder puncher and has the capability to knock her opponents out. As long as she can remain on her feet and stuff the takedowns, she should cruise to a decision victory here.
Final Jessica Penne-Elise Reed Prediction & Pick: Elise Reed (-180); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-280)