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To open what Riyadh Season is billing as the “fight card of the century,” Joshua Buatsi (19-0) will defend the WBO light heavyweight interim title against Callum Smith (30-2). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Joshua Buatsi-Callum Smith prediction and pick.
Buatsi, 31, finally obtained a world title in September 2024 with a split decision nod over Willy Hutchinson. The English prodigy made his professional debut after winning a bronze medal at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Summer Olympics. With 13 knockouts in his 19 victories, he has risen the ranks under the tutelage of former heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua.
Smith, 34, will be the biggest test of Buatsi's career as a former super middleweight champion and light heavyweight title challenger. Smith is just 3-2 in his last five fights but has only lost to two of the top pound-for-pound fighters, Canelo Alvarez and Artur Beterbiev. Since his violent loss to Beterbiev, Smith rebounded with a fifth-round TKO of Carlos Galvan in November 2024.
Here are the Joshua Buatsi-Callum Smith odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Joshua Buatsi-Callum Smith Odds
Joshua Buatsi: -215
Callum Smith: +164
Over 10.5 Rounds: -310
Under 10.5 Rounds: +225
How to Watch Joshua Buatsi vs. Callum Smith
Time: 11 a.m. ET / 8 a.m. PT
Fight ring walk time (estimated): 11:45 a.m. ET / 8:45 a.m. PT
TV/Stream: DAZN pay-per-view
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Joshua Buatsi Will Win
Since suffering a brutal beatdown at the hands of Beterbiev, many have questioned Smith's heart and drive deep into his decorated career. It was the first knockout loss of his career, but the type of beating that has permanently altered the careers of many fighters before him. If rumors of Smith's potential decline are true, he would be in for a rough night against Buatsi.
Buatsi has not won by knockout since 2021 but has three knockdowns in his past two fights. He is a quick starter with fast hands and adept foot movement. Both of those aspects of his game will be key against the taller and longer Smith. Buatsi's affinity for attacking the body will also be a weapon of his to watch against a lanky opponent like Smith.
Buatsi's biggest criticism has been his energy management. After a strong pair of opening rounds against Hutchinson, he notably faded in the middle rounds before finding a second wind to gut out a victory. Smith, however, is not one to turn up his pressure and volume late and rather maintains a steady pace throughout. Buatsi has acknowledged his spotty cardio and vowed to show improvement in this performance.
Why Callum Smith Will Win
The road for Smith has been rough of late, but he has still only lost to two of the best fighters of the current generation. Both losses were discouraging but were also one of the best performances of both Alvarez and Beterbiev's respective careers. Buatsi has the hype and record of a credible champion but is not yet at the level of either Alvarez or Beterbiev.
While Buatsi likes to start fast and establish a tempo, Smith has not typically faltered under such circumstances. He endured a rough opening round against Beterbiev but mostly fell victim to the Russian's power, which Buatsi could not equal. Buatsi's finishes are typically based on pressure rather than pure power. Smith has historically been able to keep up with such fighters.
Not only will Smith be the most experienced opponent of Buatsi in his career, but he will also be the largest. He owns a four-inch reach advantage over Buatsi that will force the Brit to break into his range. Smith's jab is a frequent weapon of his that could easily give the interim champion trouble, particularly if he expends his energy too quickly like he did against Hutchinson.
Final Joshua Buatsi-Callum Smith Prediction & Pick
At this stage of his career, most of the questions on Smith are about his mental preparation. The Beterbiev loss was catastrophic, but he looked like his old self against Galvan. Buatsi is a notable step up from Galvan but is nowhere near Alvarez or Beterbiev just yet.
Buatsi generally finds success in overwhelming opponents, which would be tough to do against an experienced and longer fighter like Smith. It could certainly still happen, but it took Beterbiev seven rounds to stop Smith, while Buatsi noticeably slowed against Hutchinson around that mark. If he allows a savvy veteran like Smith to rally back the way he did Hutchinson, Buatsi could be in for a night full of disappointment.
He will have to survive an early storm, but Smith has been the fresher fighter in the later rounds between the two in their recent showings. Buatsi is talking about Smith as if knocking him out is a foregone conclusion, a type of confidence that can be a double-edged sword. Smith's recent losses are certainly worrisome, but he is otherwise 3-0 in world title fights against opponents who do not sit atop the active pound-for-pound rankings.
Final Joshua Buatsi-Callum Smith Prediction & Pick: Callum Smith (+164)
