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UFC 312: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland 2 continues on the main card with a fight between Justin Tafa and Tallison Teixeira in the heavyweight division. Tafa is coming off a lopsided defeat in his last fight meanwhile, Teixeira is riding a seven-fight unbeaten streak coming into his UFC debut. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Tafa-Teixeira prediction and pick.
Justin Tafa (7-4) has had mixed results in his UFC career and is coming off a unanimous decision defeat to Karl Williams in his last fight. Tafa hopes to keep his UFC hopes alive and get back on track when he welcomes Tallison Teixeira to the octagon this weekend at UFC 312.
Talisson Teixeira (7-0) made quick work of his opponent Arthur Lopes with a first-round knockout to secure his contract on the Contender Series. Now, Teixeira will be looking to extend his unbeaten to streak to eight in a row when he takes on hometown favorite Justin Tafa this weekend at UFC 312.
Here are the UFC 312 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 312 Odds: Justin Tafa-Talisson Teixeira Odds
Justin Tafa: +120
Talisson Teixeira: -142
Over 1.5 rounds: +160
Under 1.5 rounds: -210
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Why Justin Tafa Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Karl Williams – DEC
- Last 5: 3-1-0, 1 NC
- Finishes: 7 (7 KO/TKO)
Justin Tafa’s explosive power and veteran savvy position him to upset the undefeated Tallison Teixeira at UFC 312. Despite Teixeira’s 7-0 record and nine-inch reach advantage, Tafa’s proven ability to close distance against taller opponents—as seen in his KO of Austen Lane—neutralizes the Brazilian’s physical edge. Tafa (7-4-1) carries dynamite in his fists, with all seven career wins by knockout, including five first-round finishes. Teixeira’s defensive lapses were exposed in his Contender Series bout against Arthur Lopes, who landed early on him before succumbing to strikes. Tafa’s deceptive speed and aggression, honed against UFC-level competition, will exploit these gaps, overwhelming the debuting Teixeira early.
While Teixeira’s 55% striking accuracy and 14.87 significant strikes per minute highlight his offensive output, his untested durability against elite power remains a liability. Tafa’s experience in high-pressure UFC bouts, combined with his improved evasive footwork post-Karl Williams loss, allows him to weather Teixeira’s initial storm. The New Zealander’s ability to blend body-head combinations with clinch knees will disrupt Teixeira’s rhythm, culminating in a second-round TKO as the Brazilian’s stamina wanes. Expect Tafa to reclaim momentum in front of a home crowd, silencing doubts with a signature knockout.
Why Talisson Teixeira Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Arthur Lopes – KO R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 7 (6 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Tallison Teixeira’s physical advantages and explosive striking make him a formidable threat to Justin Tafa at UFC 312. Standing 6’7” with an 83-inch reach—nine inches longer than Tafa’s—Teixeira can dictate range, peppering opponents with 14.87 significant strikes per minute at 54% accuracy. His Contender Series knockout of Arthur Lopes showcased his ability to weather early pressure and land fight-ending blows, a skill critical against Tafa’s aggressive style. While Tafa (7-4-1) boasts seven knockouts, his defensive flaws—absorbing 5.02 strikes per minute with 47% defense—leave him vulnerable to Teixeira’s volume and precision. The Brazilian’s debut momentum and tactical adjustments under elite training camps further amplify his threat, whereas Tafa’s recent loss to Karl Williams exposed struggles against disciplined strikers.
Teixeira’s debut urgency and calculated aggression will exploit Tafa’s predictability. Analysts highlight Tafa’s tendency to fade under sustained attacks and reliance on early knockouts, a risky approach against Teixeira’s durability36. Despite concerns about Teixeira’s untested stamina, his reach and diverse striking angles disrupt Tafa’s plodding forward movement. With Tafa’s takedown defense (50%) unlikely to deter Teixeira’s striking-centric game, expect the Brazilian to leverage his physicality and crisp combinations, sealing a first-round TKO to extend his unbeaten streak.
Final Justin Tafa-Talisson Teixeira Prediction & Pick
Justin Tafa’s knockout power and veteran composure position him to hand Tallison Teixeira his first loss at UFC 312. Despite Teixeira’s 9-inch reach advantage and undefeated record, Tafa’s proven ability to close distance against taller opponents—evidenced by his 62-second KO of Austen Lane—neutralizes the Brazilian’s physical edge. Teixeira’s 14.87 significant strikes per minute may overwhelm early, but his porous defense (absorbing 9.74 strikes/minute) leaves him vulnerable to Tafa’s fight-ending power. The New Zealander’s 7 career knockouts, coupled with Teixeira’s untested durability against UFC-level strikers, tilt the odds in Tafa’s favor if he survives the opening barrage.
While Teixeira’s Contender Series knockout showcased his aggression, his lack of elite competition raises questions. Tafa’s UFC experience—including battles against technical strikers like Carlos Felipe and Karl Williams—prepares him for Teixeira’s volume. The Brazilian’s tendency to brawl in exchanges plays into Tafa’s strengths, as his 54% striking accuracy and refined body-head combinations exploit defensive gaps. Expect Tafa to weather early pressure, close the distance, and land a fight-altering hook or uppercut, sealing a second-round KO to defy the odds.
Final Justin Tafa-Talisson Teixeira Prediction & Pick: Justin Tafa (+120), Under 1.5 Rounds (-210)