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Former middleweight title challenger Kelvin Gastelum (19-9, 1 NC) returns to the cage to take on knockout artist Joe Pyfer (13-3) at UFC Mexico City. It is time to continue our UFC Mexico City odds series with a Kelvin Gastelum-Joe Pyfer prediction and pick.
Gastelum, 33, returns to the middleweight division after a failed two-fight stint back at welterweight. Despite coming off a win over Daniel Rodriguez at UFC Saudi Arabia 2024, Gastelum is just 3-6 in his last nine fights. However, he remains one of the biggest names in the division with one of the toughest strength of schedules.
Pyfer, 28, is looking to rebuild a winning streak after knocking out Marc-Andre Barriault at UFC 303. Pyfer had his three-fight UFC win streak snapped in his first main event against Jack Hermansson at UFC Vegas 86 but is still viewed as one of the top prospects of the division. Each of Pyfer's last 11 victories has been inside the distance, including all five in the Octagon.
Here are the UFC Mexico Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico Odds: Kelvin Gastelum-Joe Pyfer Odds
Kelvin Gastelum: +250
Joe Pyfer: -310
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
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Why Kelvin Gastelum Will Win
Pyfer's biggest offensive strength is also Gastelum's top defensive trait. While Pyfer makes his money by knocking people out with his astonishing raw power, Gastelum has made a career out of his absurdly durable chin. Gastelum has never been knocked out in his 15-year career, which includes several fights against other knockout artists, including Jared Cannonier, Israel Adesanya, Johny Hendricks, and Vitor Belfort.
With just one win on his record by decision, Pyfer has not shown much to his game when he cannot run through his opposition. The last time he faced a durable veteran, Jack Hermansson taught him a classic veteran lesson. Pyfer quickly gassed out and visibly ran out of ideas once his initial go-to game plan did not pan out. Pyfer has since claimed he was physically limited by illness during that fight, but it did not change the fact that he did not have a reliable backup plan once he was unable to take Hermansson out early.
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Gastelum's 19-9 record is not pretty, especially considering his lack of recent success. However, Gastelum has faced just one unranked opponent in his last 19 fights — his last win over Daniel Rodriguez. Against unranked opponents in the UFC, he is a perfect 5-0.
Why Joe Pyfer Will Win
Although Gastelum has never been knocked out in his career, he has been knocked down five times in his last seven fights at middleweight. Four of those came in his Hall of Fame brawl with Adesanya, but Gastelum has arguably never faced anyone with as much raw power as Pyfer, who claims he broke Francis Ngannou's record on the UFC power-punching machine.
Even without a knockout, Pyfer is underrated as a grappler. Gastelum has been finished three times by submission, including his last loss to Sean Brady, Pyfer's close friend and teammate. The Marquez MMA team is routinely one of the best at crafting game plans and breaking down film, which they now will do for Gastelum for a second time. Marquez MMA fighters are already 3-0 in the UFC in 2025, with Brady notably picking up a dominant win over former champion Leon Edwards last weekend.
If Pyfer is unable to knock out Gastelum, it would be surprising to none. But in a three-round fight, his odds of fading late — as he did against Hermansson — are significantly reduced. He did not show serious signs of fatigue against Hermansson until round four. Pyfer will also have a monstrous size and strength advantage, which he could easily use to copy the game plan Brady used to dominate Gastelum.
Final Kelvin Gastelum-Joe Pyfer Prediction & Pick
Although Gastelum has a legendary chin, it would not be too surprising to see Pyfer be the guy to finally break it. Rumored to have more raw power than Francis Ngannou, Pyfer has folded practically every opponent he has ever hit cleanly. Gastelum often puts blind faith in his chin, allowing himself to eat clean shots in the belief he will survive them. To this point, that has worked, but it has also been the cause of his 2-5 middleweight record since 2019.
In this fight, Gastelum will be officially returning to middleweight for the first time since 2023. That may be good for his lifestyle but terrible for his career. Much like Kevin Holland, Gastelum bounces back and forth between 170 and 185 pounds despite being significantly better suited for welterweight. Pyfer, a true middleweight, will have a very noticeable five-inch height and four-inch reach advantage. Pyfer naturally has a strength advantage over almost everyone he faces, and that will almost certainly be true in this matchup.
It is not Pyfer's typical M.O. to chase a submission, but that might be his best path to a finish against Gastelum. Just 15 months after watching Brady dominate him on the ground, the idea has to at least be in the back of Pyfer's mind. Pyfer's knockout power often overshadows his better-than-average grappling game. The last time he faced an opponent against whom he had a significant grappling edge, he handed Abdul Razak Alhassan the first submission loss of his career. One way or another, Pyfer should be able to get the much smaller Gastelum out before the final horn.
Final Kelvin Gastelum-Joe Pyfer Prediction & Pick: Joe Pyfer by KO/TKO OR Submission (+120)
