Subscribe
Follow Us
We're back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 89 as we'll see our Featured Prelim bout of card coming in the Lightweight (155) Division. Ultimate Fighter alum Kurt Holobaugh will face off against Kansas' own Trey Ogden. Check out our UFC odds series for our Holobaugh-Ogden prediction and pick.
Kurt Holobaugh (20-7) comes into his second UFC fight following a win over Austin Hubbard in his debut fight following The Ultimate Fighter. He's got a well-rounded game and is an established veteran of the sport despite his lack of octagon time in the UFC. He'll look to knock off an established featherweight as he continues his rise. Holobaugh stands 5'11” with a 70-inch reach.
Trey Ogden (16-6) comes into this bout with a 1-2-0-1 record under the UFC. He split his last four fights at 2-2 and his last fight against Nikolas Motta was stopped by the referee prematurely and later ruled a ‘No Contest.” Ogden will be looking for a more definitive result as he tries to finish his opponent here. Ogden stands 5'11” with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Vegas 89 Odds: Kurt Holobaugh-Trey Ogden Odds
Kurt Holobaugh: +136
Trey Ogden: -156
Over 2.5 rounds: -155
Under 2.5 rounds: +125
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Kurt Holobaugh Will Win
At 37 years old, some may say that Kurt Holobaugh is a tad late to the UFC roster. He was one of the older fighters on Season 30 of The Ultimate Fighter, but he managed to still get his UFC shot and impressed wholly during his debut. Facing his friend and housemate Austin hubbard, Holobaugh was the much more aggressive fighter and went for the finish immediately. If he can start the same way and overwhelm Ogden with his early pressure, he could come away here with a win.
Holobaugh has extremely stiff punches and can inflict a ton of damage if he lands clean on opponents. He's not so much worried about his own well-being as he's willing to walk through the fire just to land a few clean punches from his end. He also hasn't taken a ton of damage in his career up to this point, so he should be fresh despite his age and relative inexperience in the UFC.
Article Continues Below
Why Trey Ogden Will Win
Trey Ogden comes into this fight with 11 of his 16 pro wins coming by way of submission. He's a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt and even owns and operates his own jiu jitsu school. His grappling will be levels above his opponent during this fight, but Ogden will have to be adament about finding the takedown and putting Holobaugh on his back. We haven't seen Holobaugh in a ton of trouble just yet, so this serves as a good opportunity for Ogden to put him in some compromised positions.
On the feet, we've seen Trey Ogden struggle against tough opponents who walk him down. He'll be getting exactly that in fighting Kurt Holobaugh and he'll have to react quickly to the aggression and output coming back his way. Expect Ogden to tie Holobaugh up along the fence as he searches for a double-leg takedown. On the ground, Ogden is much more versed with his jiu jitsu and will have the upper-hand in finding a sneaky submission for the win.
Final Kurt Holobaugh-Trey Ogden Prediction & Pick
This should be an interesting fight given both fighters' limited resumes with the UFC. Kurt Holobaugh is about as tough as prospects come and it's clear Trey Ogden won't be able to put him away easily on the feet. If Holobaugh can deny the takedowns and keep this fight where he's comfortable, he should come out with the upset win.
However, Trey Ogden is an master when it comes to locking-up quick submissions, so he's only going to need a tiny opening to find one and put an end to this fight. He'll first need to land his takedowns and it should be an early indicator of how the rest of the fight will play out.
For our prediction, I'll side slightly with Trey Ogden to get the win. He's been in this spot a few times more than Holobaugh and he's seen similar opponents. Ogden is also the better athlete and I like his chances to flip positions during this fight and end up with a submission win. For our prediction, let's roll with Trey Ogden to get the win as the slight favorite here.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Kurt Holobaugh-Trey Ogden Prediction & Pick: Trey Ogden (-156)
