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Louisiana Tech looks to improve on their three-win season from last year and make a bowl game. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a Louisiana Tech football win total prediction and pick.
Last year was underwhelming for Louisiana Tech and Sonny Cumbie in his first season as the head man. They finished just 3-9 on the season with a 2-6 record in conference play. It placed them last in the conference last year, in a tie with FIU and Charlotte. The Bulldogs lost to both of those teams though, and therefore claimed the bottom spot. It was not far from expectation though. The pre-season media poll picked the Bulldogs to finish 9th out of 11 teams in the conference.
There is still optimism for Louisiana Tech though. They scored 34 or more points five times over the season and at times, the offense looked great. They should be even better this year. The offense will still have the high-flying marks of a Cumbie offense, and now the players are there to go with it. They will feature Hank Bachmeir at quarterback. He is a solid quarterback looking for a new start after being a disappointment at Boise State. At running back, Sqwirl Williams comes from Baylor. Then Smoke Harris and Cyrus Allen will be joined by Nebraksa transfer Decoldest Crawford.
The defense may still be a struggle, as it has been for the past few years. With solid transfers on the defensive line and in the defensive secondary, they should improve. They also brought in plenty of new quality freshmen. Louisiana Tech signed its best-ever recruiting class.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Louisiana Tech Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 5.5 wins: -170
Under 5.5 wins: +139
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Why Louisiana Tech Can Win 5.5 Games
The Louisiana Tech win total is set at 5.5 games, meaning a bowl game would be in their future if they can hit the over. The Bulldogs currently sit fourth in odds to win the conference, ahead of foes such as UTEP, New Mexico State, and FIU. Not on the board are newcomers Sam Houston and Jacksonville State.
The schedule opens with a winnable game against FIU. Last year this was a double overtime win for FIU, but this year, Lousiana Tech's offense is better and FIU will not be able to keep up. Week two most likely brings a loss at SMU before going home to face Northwestern State. This was a sub-par FCS team last year and will be a win for the Bulldogs this year. North Texas brings another opportunity for a win. ESPN's FPI has this near a 50/50 game. With the game being at home, and a new offense, the Bulldogs start 3-1.
Unless Decoldest Crawford can perform a miracle in the fifth game of the year, Louisana Tech will be losing to Nebraska before heading to El Paso. UTEP provides another interesting game. UTEP will have the best line in Conference USA, but without offensive weapons, it is hard to score. Louisana Tech will score plenty against a fairly weak defense and snag their fourth win of the season before facing Western Kentucky. The defense will let them down in the next two weeks. Western Kentucky boasts a great offense, and Middle Tennessee is a very balanced team that will not only slow down the Bulldogs but be able to score. The Bulldogs go into their bye week 4-4 needing two wins to get to a bowl.
After the bye is New Mexico State. Jerry Kill has the team improving but this team racked up wins against sub-par opponents. They will not get that chance this year. Diego Pavia will not have enough help to outscore the Bulldogs and they sit a win away from a bowl game. After a loss to Liberty, the win comes on November 19th against Sam Houston. Sam Houston decided to redshirt a lot of their players last year and was uncharacteristically bad. Still, the jump up to FCS play is big, and it will be a struggle for the squad. This should be a close game, with many talented players going to Sam Houston, but without a quality quarterback, the Bulldogs take advantage. They could finish with a seventh win over Jacksonville State if they can slow down the Gamecocks' run game.
Why Louisiana Tech Can Not Win 5.5 Games
The road to seven losses could start in week zero. FIU won this game last year and Mike MacIntyre has a long history of improving teams quickly. With a year of experience under their belt, the defense will be better, and they could fall to FIU in week zero. Game four could provide another loss. North Texas is projected to be a six to seven-win team in a much tougher conference. The Mean Green scored 47 last year in this game and there is no reason to believe this year will be different. This places the Bulldogs with four losses in their first five games.
With that UTEP and New Mexico State could both be losses. UTEP has a great line, and if Gavin Hardison can make a step forward as a quarterback, the offense could be good this year. The defense should be better this year too. At New Mexico State, Jerry Kill is a winner and that has rubbed off on Diego Pavia. Watching their bowl game last year, Pavia single-handedly won that game. He has a great arm, and if a defense is not careful, he will take off and get great yards.
Sam Houston and Jacksonville State could both be losses if the Bulldogs are not careful. Sam Houston has a solid defense and could stifle Louisana Tech. They have plenty of players returning on offense and should be an improved squad from last year. Jacksonville State will have an explosive running game. It is looking like a Rich Rod offense from his days at West Virginia. That might just be too much for the Bulldogs.
Final Louisiana Tech Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The ceiling for Louisana Tech looks to be seven wins, while the floor could be one. That is quite a large swath of outcomes for this team. It all comes down to two factors. First, is this offense going to take the big step forward and consistently be putting up 30-plus points? Second, can the defense stop anyone? They gave up over 35 points in eight games last year. They lost all of them. With wins over FIU and Northwestern State, things are looking good early. They also knock off UTEP to get three wins before the bye. Wins over New Mexico State and Sam Houston get them to five, and the chance of a bowl game is on the line against Jacksonville State. The season ends with a victory and the over hits.
Final Louisiana Tech Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 5.5 (-170)
