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Madison Keys faces Peyton Stearns at the 2025 Italian Open. Our Italian Open odds series has our Keys-Stearns prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Keys-Stearns.
Madison Keys is living in a new world after winning a major tournament. Every professional tennis player's life changes after winning one of the biggest titles in the world. Keys won the Australian Open this past January, one of the best stories of the decade in tennis. Keys spent more than 10 years chasing down that elusive achievement, but she finally got there, which makes the achievement that much more special and memorable. So many talented players spend their whole career trying to crack the code and cross the threshold, but they never get there. Keys got there. She will never again have to lament all the failures from the past, because she was able to solve this mystery and lift a trophy on the biggest stage of her sport. Now the question is different. It's not “Will she ever do it?” It's “Can she build on what she has done and do even more?” It's a great question for an elite athlete to contemplate. Let's see what Madison Keys can do next.
Here are the Keys-Stearns Italian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Italian Open Odds: Keys-Stearns Odds
Game Spread:
Keys -3.5 (-112)
Stearns +3.5 (-120)
Moneyline:
Keys -235
Stearns +186
To Win First Set:
Keys -220
Stearns +168
Total Games In Match:
Over 21.5 (-118)
Under 21.5 (-118)
Total Games Won:
Keys over 12.5 (-106)
Keys under 12.5 (-138)
Stearns over 10.5 (-125)
Stearns under 10.5 (-110)
How to Watch Italian Open
Time: 5:10 a.m. ET / 2:10 a.m. PT
TV: Tennis Channel
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Madison Keys Will Win
Madison Keys has high-level competitive chops right now. What she did in Australia should make us reconsider who and what she is as a tennis player. In Australia, if you remember, Keys wasn't dominating her opponents. She was battling hard to win three-set matches. She would take a punch or fall behind and respond brilliantly to the challenge and the pressure. The other day in Rome, she fell behind Varvara Gracheva 5-2 in the first set but came back to win that set. The new and improved Madison Keys competes better than ever before. She deserves to be seen as the favorite in this match, the player who should prevail over Peyton Stearns by a comfortable margin.
Why Peyton Stearns Will Win
Keys is going up against a rugged, resilient competitor. Peyton Stearns hasn't made a dramatic breakthrough to the very top tier of women's tennis, but she makes opponents beat her. If she loses, she will go down fighting. She will make the match close and difficult for her opponent. Keys is a quality player, but clay is not her best surface. Stearns can rope Keys into a hard-fought encounter which goes three sets and enables Stearns to cover the spread. If this is a 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 match, that's a cover for Stearns.
Final Keys-Stearns Prediction & Pick
This match very possibly goes three sets. Keys probably will need seven games to win at least one set. If she wins 6-4, 7-5, that's 13 games won and therefore cashes the over. A three-set outcome probably gives Keys at least 13 games, even if she loses the match. Keys could lose 3-6, 6-4, 6-4. She would still cover the over games won total. You could play both overs in this match, but we will focus on and officially recommend only Keys.
Final Keys-Stearns Prediction & Pick: Keys over 12.5 games won
