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The Houston Cougars are set to face the Villanova Wildcats. Check out our March Madness odds series, which includes our Houston Villanova prediction, odds, and pick.
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The Houston Cougars are making their second consecutive Elite 8 appearance, impressing March Madness odds analysts so much that they are favored to beat Villanova despite being three seed lines lower in this matchup. Houston is a No. 5 seed while Villanova is a No. 2 seed. Houston has been highly ranked in the KenPom metrics all season long, a big reason why the Cougars are favored here.
The other reason: Houston is simply being great defense right now. The Cougars shut down Arizona and held the No. 1 seed in the South Region to just 60 points on Thursday in a 12-point win. Houston smothered Arizona big man Azuolas Tubelis, who was 0 for 8 from the field with four turnovers. Houston can and does rattle its opponents like that, something to consider when making a Houston Villanova prediction.
Houston bothered Illinois and Kofi Cockburn in the previous round. The Cougars are in a groove at the defensive end of the floor, and they are getting enough production from their offense — specifically Jamal Shead and Kyler Edwards — to supplement their defense and overcome their limitations. Everyone has to realize, when considering a Houston Villanova pick, that the Cougars are doing all of this without Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark, two important core players in their lineup. Kelvin Sampson is coaching brilliantly right now, and with the game being in San Antonio, Houston will certainly like its chances against Villanova.
The Villanova Wildcats will have something to say about Houston making back-to-back Final Fours. The Wildcats have played strong late-game defense to turn back Ohio State and Michigan in their past two games. One concern for VU in this game is the health of star Collin Gillespie. His condition was in question when Thursday's regional semifinal against Michigan ended, but subsequent examination of his knee has revealed no structural problems. He should be good to go, though some might wonder if he will be fully effective in this game. Gillespie was injured last year when Villanova fell short of the Final Four. This is a game Gillespie has been waiting to play for a long time, as Villanova tries to get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2018.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Houston-Villanova odds:
March Madness Odds: Houston-Villanova Odds
Houston: -2.5 (-110)
Villanova: +2.5 (-110)
Over: 127 (-110)
Under: 127 (-110)
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Why Houston Could Cover the Spread
The Cougars are playing lights-out defense. They beat the No. 1 seed in this region, Arizona, while Villanova has fattened up on lower-seeded Big Ten teams. Playing in San Antonio gives Houston a crowd advantage.
Why Villanova Could Cover the Spread
The Wildcats have won two national championships in the past six years. They don't get rattled under pressure and are therefore equipped to deal with Houston's defensive pressure. Villanova started the season slowly but has steadily improved. This team is building for this moment and should be ready to play its best game.
Final Houston-Villanova Prediction & Pick
This should be a very close game, but Villanova plays with poise and steadiness, enabling the Wildcats to handle Houston's defensive pressure. Villanova will go back to the Final Four.
Final Houston-Villanova Pick: Villanova +2.5
