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The Indiana Hoosiers are set to face the Saint Mary's Gaels. Check out our March Madness odds series, which includes our Indiana Saint Mary's prediction, odds, and pick.
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You probably saw the Indiana Hoosiers defeat the Wyoming Cowboys on Tuesday in the First Four in Dayton, a game which changed the March Madness odds for the Hoosiers and lifted them into the Round of 64. It was an ugly game, but Indiana has suddenly become a team which wins ugly. The Hoosiers beat Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament. They did that by causing the Wolverines and Illini to come unglued on offense. Indiana forced a bunch of turnovers by Michigan and Illinois. The Hoosiers also benefited from some unforced turnovers, but they rattled the opposition and created a style of game in which their opponent simply wasn't comfortable. The Hoosiers were getting crushed by Michigan for most of last Wednesday's Big Ten Tournament game. Indiana showed very little defensive resistance in the first 28 minutes of that contest. However, in the final 12 minutes, something clicked. Indiana began to play the level of defense which had been missing for most of the season. Indiana has not stopped playing defense at that exalted level. It's why the Hoosiers are a profoundly different team, something to note when making an Indiana Saint Mary's pick.
Saint Mary's beat Gonzaga in late February, playing defense at an even higher level than what Indiana has shown the past week. Coach Randy Bennett knows how to game plan and strategize for opponents. He has the Gaels supremely prepared for big games. The ability of SMC to slow down Chet Holmgren and the Gonzaga offense speaks volumes about how fundamentally sound the Gaels are. This puts them in a very good position to beat Indiana and build off a very strong regular season in which they finished second in the West Coast Conference. Saint Mary's made the Sweet 16 in 2010 as a No. 10 seed. This year, the Gaels are seeded fifth. They have had one of their best regular seasons ever and are intent on advancing multiple rounds in this part of the East Region bracket. It's something to pay attention to when you make your Indiana Saint Mary's pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Indiana-Saint Mary's odds:
March Madness Odds: Indiana-Saint Mary's Odds
Indiana: +2.5 (-110)
Saint Mary's: -2.5 (-110)
Over: 126.5 (-110)
Under: 126.5 (-110)
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Why Indiana Could Cover the Spread
The Hoosiers' defense is so locked in right now that it seems nothing is going to pry the Hoosiers out of their ultra-focused state. Shooters get into a rhythm, but defenses get into a rhythm as well. IU has a great defensive rhythm, as good as any team in the country at the moment.
Why Saint Mary's Could Cover the Spread
The Gaels defend well, and they are facing an Indiana offense which did not play well against Wyoming. Saint Mary's is unlikely to commit the large number of turnovers Wyoming committed against the Hoosiers. Also, Indiana had to play a game in Dayton on Tuesday and then had to fly to Portland for this Thursday game. Saint Mary's will be much fresher and more rested for this battle. The game sets up well for the Gaels.
Final Indiana-Saint Mary's Prediction & Pick
Indiana having to play a First Four game and then fly across the country to Portland is not how a team wants to enter a game against Saint Mary's, which is a disciplined team. The Gaels are unlikely to commit enough turnovers to give Indiana a decisive edge. Take SMC here.
Final Indiana-Saint Mary's Pick: Saint Mary's -2.5
