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The Providence Friars are set to face the Kansas Jayhawks. Check out our March Madness odds series, which includes our Providence Kansas prediction, odds, and pick.
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The Providence Friars are the No. 4 seed in the Midwest Region. March Madness odds experts would tell you that No. 4 seeds are generally solid favorites over No. 13 seeds in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Yet, Providence was just a two-point favorite over South Dakota State. Providence fans certainly noticed, and it's reasonable to think that the players were aware of that fact on some level. South Dakota State was a popular upset pick, but the idea that Providence was barely better than the Jackrabbits felt a little odd nonetheless. Providence won by nine points, a message to anyone contemplating a Providence Kansas prediction.
Providence then was a modest 3.5-point favorite over Richmond, another sign of Providence not being viewed as the quality team it in fact is. The Friars won the Big East regular-season championship over Villanova, and yet they were favored by one 3-point bucket against a No. 12 seed. Providence proceeded to blitz Richmond by 28 points, showing that it was dramatically better than the Spiders even though the odds did not draw a large distinction between the two teams.
When thinking about a Providence Kansas pick, it is worth noting that Kansas almost lost to Creighton in the second round. The Jayhawks had a modest working margin for a good portion of the second half, but they were inconsistent enough to let Creighton pull within a point in the final minutes. Kansas stabilized in those last two minutes to win by seven, but the Jayhawks showed enough weaknesses to remind everyone that while they are the favorite in the Midwest Region, they aren't a juggernaut, a true goliath. This is a balanced team, but it isn't an overwhelming team. KU needs production from many sources if it wants to stay alive in March and get back to the Final Four for the first time since 2018. One of the more encouraging aspects of Kansas's first weekend in the Big Dance was the emergence of Remy Martin. The transfer from Arizona State has played better in recent weeks, and if he can continue to thrive, the ceiling for Kansas becomes a lot higher.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Providence-Kansas odds:
March Madness Odds: Providence-Kansas Odds
Providence: +7.5 (-110)
Kansas: -7.5 (-110)
Over: 141.5 (-110)
Under: 141.5 (-110)
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Why Providence Could Cover the Spread
The Friars are good at playing and winning close games. They get to the free throw line a lot. They play sound defense. They have forcefully defeated two upset-minded opponents, and now they get to play with house money as a lower seed. It's a good situation for them.
Why Kansas Could Cover the Spread
The Jayhawks' best players are better than the Friars' best players. Providence has no one as skilled as Ochai Agbaji, and no one as physically imposing as David McCormack in the paint. Kansas will overpower Providence over the course of 40 minutes.
Final Providence-Kansas Prediction & Pick
Kansas probably wins outright, but Providence is too good, too tough, and too well-coached to get blown out here.
Final Providence-Kansas Pick: Providence +7.5
