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For the 15th time in the school's history, the Kansas Jayhawks earned a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. It is the ninth time it has happened under coach Bill Self's watch since he joined the program in 2003. They will face off against Texas Southern. The Tigers defeated the Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders in the play-in game Tuesday night, 76-67. It is the third consecutive year that Texas Southern, having won the previous two. After watching overall #1 seed Virginia lose to a #16 seed a few years, gone are the days where you can simply overlook this matchup and “chalk” in the top seed. Yes, pun is intended. So, let's continue our college basketball odds series with a prediction, odds and a pick.
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The Jayhawks are hoping to make a deep run, and hopefully win their sixth overall national championship. However, only three of the previous five titles are NCAA Championships. Two of them were Helms National Championships back before the NCAA was running things.
Meanwhile, Texas Southern is looking to shock the world. Not many people give them any shot at winning this game, including book makers in Las Vegas. The Tigers are massive underdogs essentially playing a road game against the Jayhawks because of the Kansas contingent of followers. So, let's delve into this and provide the odds, our prediction and pick for the Kansas vs. Texas Southern first round NCAA Tournament game.
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March Madness Odds: Kansas vs. Texas Southern Odds
Kansas: -22.5 (-110)
Boise State: +22.5 (-110)
Over: 144.5 (-110)
Under: 144.5 (-110)
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Why Kansas Could Cover the Spread
The Kansas Jayhawks enter the NCAA Tournament playing some of their best basketball of the season. They have won five straight and nine of their last 11 games. Early in the season, when Kansas was still in its non-conference schedule, they faced a couple teams with similar talent level as Texas Southern. They hammered both Tarleton and Stony Brook by almost 30 points each. So, they are fully capable of covering a 22.5 point spread.
Texas Southern was not even the best team in the South Western Athletic Conferece. Alcorn State won the regular season crown before the Tigers won the conference tournament and automatic bid.
Texas Southern is a balanced team, but does not possess any particular player that can take over the game. Their leading scorer is John Walker III, who averages just 10.1 points per game. On the other hand, Kansas has a plethora of players that can go off on any given night. The Jayhawks very easily could be up by 20 at half, and then cruise to a cover in this game.
Why Texas Southern Could Cover the Spread
Despite being massive underdogs, you know that this Texas Southern team is going to play with belief. Unlike most cinderella teams, they have been here before. Last year, the Tigers were once again a #16 seed, and played #1 seed Michigan. Despite having a tough first half, the Tigers held tough in the second half and lost 82-66. That would be an easy cover here.
The game is going to be played inside the state of Texas. So, it's likely that the normal Jayhawks contingent won't overwhelm their opponents, as their school is much closer. Plus, any neutral fans in attendance will almost always be rooting for the underdog.
Kansas is a very good basketball team, but not without holes. Their point guard position has been an issue for much of the season. Dajuan Harris Jr. became the first starting point guard under Bill Self to go scoreless in back-to-back games last month. The Kansas fanbase has been loud and very unhappy with Self sticking with Harris Jr.
The Tigers are a solid rebounding team. If they can keep Kansas off the offensive glass, limiting their second chance points, and hold Harris Jr. in check, they might be able to make this a game.
Final Kansas-Texas Southern Prediction & Pick
Vegas did a great job setting this line. The game will likely be played in the 15-25 point differential range for much of it. The 22.5 can go either way, but I do especially like the under here. Texas Southern should struggle to score in this game. Assuming Kansas is in control late, they should call off the dogs and keep this game beneath the total.
Final Pick: Under 144.5 (-110)
