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The Seattle Mariners will finish their three-game series with the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday at Progressive Field. We're here to share our MLB odds series, make a Mariners-Guardians prediction, and pick while showing you how to watch.
Mariners-Guardians Projected Starters
Luis Castillo vs. Logan Allen
Luis Castillo (6-7) with a 3.32 ERA
Last Start: Castillo had a solid outing in his start, going six innings while allowing two earned runs on four hits while striking out seven in a win over the Texas Rangers.
2024 Road Splits: Castillo is 2-4 with a 3.76 ERA over seven starts away from Seattle.
Logan Allen (7-3) with a 5.30 ERA
Last Start: Allen went five innings in his last start and allowed one earned run on three hits while striking out three and walking three in a win over the Toronto Blue Jays.
2024 Home Splits: Allen is 2-0 with a 7.33 ERA over five starts at Progressive Field, not losing despite struggling.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Guardians Odds
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+130)
Moneyline: -118
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-156)
Moneyline: +100
Over: 8.5 (-105)
Under: 8.5 (-115)
How to Watch Mariners vs. Guardians
Time: 1:10 PM ET/10:10 AM PT
TV: MLB Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Mariners Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mariners are currently leading the American League West by a sizable margin, having led the Houston Astros by 10 games coming into Wednesday's action. Despite their success, their hitting has struggled.
The M's entered the day just 28th in batting average, 25th in on-base percentage, 23rd in runs, and 22nd in slugging percentage. Yet, they have tremendous power, ranking sixth in home runs. They have some players who can create some damage.
Ty France is one of their longest-tenured players. Currently, he is batting .249 with seven home runs, 27 RBIs, and 22 runs. Julio Rodriguez continues to be one of the top young players in the game. Ultimately, he is hitting .264 with seven home runs, 29 RBIs, and 36 runs. Cal Raleigh is a slugger. Significantly, he is batting .206 with 12 home runs, 44 RBIs, and 28 runs and is on pace for 25 home runs and 100 RBIs.
The Mariners have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball. However, Castillo struggled in his start against the Guardians earlier this season, going 5 2/3 innings while allowing four earned runs on 10 hits in a loss. Despite how good Castillo is, the bullpen has not been that great. Unfortunately, they are just 15th in team ERA.
The Mariners will cover the spread if they can string some hits together against Allen. Then, Castillo needs to bounce back and find the strike zone against the Guardians to prevent putting too much pressure on the bullpen.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Guardians are currently leading the American League Central. They have managed to dominate in several aspects of their game, including some hitting and elite pitching.
The Guardians are just 16th in batting average, 14th in home runs, and 13th in slugging percentage. Yet, they are also eighth in on-base percentage and runs. Their hitters have done enough to help put them in first.
Josh Naylor is displaying all the power to help give the Guardians some runs. So far, he is batting .229 with 17 home runs, 50 RBIs, and 38 runs. Jose Ramirez is a monster at the plate. Currently, he is hitting .271 with 18 home runs, 63 RBIs, and 52 runs and is well on his way to 36 home runs, 110 RBIs, and 105 runs if he can keep the pace going.
Andres Gimenez is struggling to get things going consistently. Currently, he is batting .256 with four home runs, 35 RBIs, and 35 runs. But the Guardians really like what they have in Steven Kwan. Significantly, he is hitting .392 with four home runs, 18 RBIs, and 39 runs over 44 games.
The Guardians are one of the top pitching staffs in the majors. Furthermore, Allen dominated the Mariners earlier this season, tossing six shutout innings while allowing four hits and striking out six in a win. When Allen finishes, he will turn the ball over to the most dominant bullpen in baseball.
The Guardians will cover the spread if they can figure out Castillo early. Then, they need Allen to replicate his dominance against the Mariners from earlier in the season and then hand it over to the best bullpen.
Final Mariners-Guardians Prediction & Pick
This is a potential playoff preview, and we can see these teams play again in the playoffs. For now, the M's have shown they can hang with the Guardians after winning the opener 8-5. But the Mariners are just 36-39 against the spread, while the Guardians are 40-30. Moreover, they are just 16-20 against the spread on the road, mainly because they have won a lot of close games. The Guardians are just 16-14 against the spread at home, as they have also won a lot of close games. We believe this will be a close game, and we also feel it will be low-scoring with the good pitchers on the mound. Take the under.
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Final Mariners-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
