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The Marlins will travel to New York to face the Mets! The Marlins were solid at the start of the year, while the Mets had a great start. This is a big series between both teams in New York. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Mets prediction and pick.
Marlins-Mets Projected Starters
Connor Gillespie vs. Clay Holmes
Connor Gillespie (0-1) with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed one run on four hits with zero walks and six strikeouts
Away Splits:
Clau Holmes (0-1) with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP
Last Start: Allowed two runs on six hits with two walks and six strikeouts
Home Splits:
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Mets Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (+104)
Moneyline: +245
New York Mets: -1.5 (-125)
Moneyline: -300
Over: 6.5 (-128)
Under: 6.5 (+104)
How to Watch Marlins vs. Mets
Time: 7:10 pm ET/4:10 pm PT
TV: SNY/FanDuel Sports Network Miami
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Marlins were among the worst teams in the MLB last season, with a 62-100 record, but they have been solid this season with a 5-4 record. They are 2-3 in their last five games. The offense has been around average for the Marlins last season and into this season. The pitching has jumped up with them being a top-10 unit this season through nine games, while they were one of the worst pitching staffs last season. Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards, Griffin Conine, and Kyle Stowers have stood out despite their offensive struggles. Max Meyer, Connor Gillespie, and Sandy Alcantara have been solid for the Marlins in this pitching staff. The Marlins seem better than last season, but it remains to be seen by how much.
The Marlins are starting Gillespie on the mound. He has a 0-1 record, a 3.60 ERA, and a 1.20 WHIP. Through 10 innings, he has allowed five runs on eight hits with four walks and 10 strikeouts. Despite his solid play, the Marlins lost both games he started this season. This is a difficult matchup against a Mets offense with a lot of talent, which is playing much better after slowly beginning the season.
The Marlins' offense has struggled this season. They were 14th in team batting average at .244 last season and have a .238 average this season. Lopez and Stowers lead the offense. Lopez leads in batting average at .270, home runs at two, RBI with seven, and total hits with 10. Stowers is also the leader in OBP at .400. This offense has been solid, but they will struggle against the Mets and Clay Holmes on the mound.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets are committed to success and have a monster payroll, and that's after having an 89-73 record last season. They have started with a 6-3 record this year. They were ranked 12th in batting average and 15th in team pitching ERA. They have struggled behind the plate and are 27th in team batting average this season. They are first in pitching staff this season. Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Jesse Winker, and then the giant acquisition of Juan Soto make up a solid pitching rotation. Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Griffin Canning, and Clay Holmes make up a great pitching rotation. The Mets have talent and can continue their emergence against the Marlins in this matchup.
The Mets are starting Clay Holmes on the mound. He has allowed five runs on 11 hits with six walks and 10 strikeouts through 9.1 innings. He also has a K/BB ratio of 1.7. Holmes has been great through his first two starts, but the Mets are 1-1 in their two starts this season. Holmes should have a significant matchup advantage against the Mets.
The Mets' offense was great last year and got even better heading into this season, but things have been a struggle to start. Their team batting average was .246, 12th best in the league, and is now .197 to start the season, which is 27th. Alonso leads the Mets in most of the essential batting categories. Alonso leads in batting average at .290, in home runs with three, in RBI with 11, in OBP at .421, and in total hits with nine. This Mets offense has struggled to get much going this year, but it might not matter against Gillespie because they can win a pitching duel.
Final Marlins-Mets Prediction & Pick
The Mets have the advantage in this game with their pitching. I don't trust the Marlins to do much, and the Mets have struggled behind the plate, but Holmes should completely shut down the Marlins' offense and win and cover at home.
Final Marlins-Mets Prediction & Pick: New York Mets -1.5 (-125)
