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As Marshall pays them a visit, NC State plays host in a non-conference game. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Marshall-NC State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Marshall enters the game at 4-0 on the season. They have had some close games this year but managed to come out on top for all of them. It started with Albany when Marshall came back from down 17-7 to win 21-17. The next week was easier, with a 31-13 over East Carolina, but the close games would return. Against Virginia Tech, it was just a 24-17 win. Then last week, they held off a comeback attempt from Old Dominion to win 41-35. In general, the offense has been solid, averaging almost 30 points per game. Meanwhile, the defense has held teams to under 20 points in three of four games.
Meanwhile, NC State is sitting at 3-2 on the season. After beating UCONN 24-14, Sam Hartman and Notre Dame put up 45 on them and would win 45-24. NC State would rebound against two Virginia schools. First, it was a 45-7 win over VMI and then a close, 24-21 win over Virginia. Last week, it was another ACC clash as they faced Louisville. NC State held a 10-0 lead at halftime, but Louisville would score 13 in the second half, to win 13-10.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Marshall-NC State Odds
Marshall: +6.5 (-105)
NC State: -6.5 (-115)
Over: 44.5 (-110)
Under: 44.5 (-110)
How to Watch Marshall vs. NC State Week 6
Time: 2:00 PM ET/ 11:00 AM PT
TV: CW Network
Stream: fuboTV (click for free trial)
Why Marshall Will Cover The Spread
Cam Fancher is the leader of this Marshall offense at quarterback. On the season he has completed 88 of 124 passes for 890 yards and four touchdowns. Last game he was great, completing over 82 percent of his passes for 278 yards and two scores. Francher has also been protected very well this year. He has been pressured just 31 times this season and has been sacked just three. He has run for positive yardage 16 times. The only knock on his game has been ball security. He has thrown four interceptions and another five turnover-worthy passes. Francher has also fumbled five times this year.
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The Marshall running game features Rasheen Ali. Ali has run for 475 yards this year, averaging over 100 yards per game. He has also scored nine times on the ground and has seven runs over 15 yards this season. Ali is getting great blocking too, with almost three yards before first contact, and then he is running for another 2.1 yards per carry after contact as well. Ali also has 58 yards receiving out of the backfield this season.
Francher is also getting some reliable work from his receiver. Cade Conley, the tight end, has been very reliable this year. He has brought in 18 of 21 targets, with two drops, for 167 yards and a score. Still, he is doing work after the catch, with 112 of his 167 yards this year being after the catch. Meanwhile, Francher has targeted five other wide receivers ten or more times. Only one, Caleb McMillan does not have a higher completion rate than 60 percent. Between the five of them, they have four scores, just two drops, and average over seven yards after the catch per reception.
Marshall has also been getting a great pass rush this year. Sam Burton leads the way with 18 quarterback pressures and six sacks on the year. He has also hit the quarterback five other times. He was held in check last game though, with just one pressure in the game, and the use of a tight end to help out worked. Eli Neal has five sacks this year on ten pressures as well. Overall, Marshall has 87 quarterback pressures and 24 sacks in four games this year. They have been solid in coverage this year too, with five interceptions this year and just three touchdowns allowed. Micah Abraham has allowed one of those touchdowns, but he has made up for it. He has picked off two passes, and broken up three more.
Why NC State Will Cover The Spread
This year, it has been Brennan Armstrong to start at quarterback for the Wolfpack. He has thrown six interceptions this year and has not been the spark the NC State offense is looking for. So NC State is making a change at quarterback. The Sophomore MJ Morris is now taking the reigns of the offense. Last year he completed just over 60 percent of his passes for 648 yards and seven touchdowns in limited action. He was interception just once on 86 attempts last year, and only threw two other turnover-worthy passes. He also did work on the ground, with 88 yards and a score last year. Morris was not amazing for NC State last year, but he did a good job with ball security, something that Armstrong has not done.
NC State will need a strong ground game to help out their new quarterback. The leading rusher of the year. Michael Allen has been the top running back for NC State outside of Armstrong. He has run 29 times this year for 139 yards, while Kendrick Raphael has 111 yards rushing this year. Neither of them has scored this year though. Delbert Mimms III has scored the most this year, with five touchdowns on the ground this season.
Morris will need some help from receivers this year. Kevin Concepcion is the leading receiver this year. He has brought in 23 of 35 targets this season for 245 yards and two scores. He has not done a ton after the catch but is still averaging over five yards after the catch per reception this year.
On defense, it will have to be about stopping the run. NC State has not been great there, but not bad either. They have made 72 stops for offensive failures this year, holding almost a 66 percent success rate. This is all led by Payton Wilson, who has 21 tackles in the run game with 12 assists. He has missed just two tackles and has 15 stops for offensive failures. He also has an average depth of tackle of 3.3 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Final Marshall-NC State Prediction & Pick
NC State has not had many impressive performances this year. Against the spread, they are just 0-4-1. MJ Morris got some time last year, but it was clear the plan was to let him sit for a year and develop. That has not happened though. Now NC State turns to a sophomore with limited experience, on an offense that is struggling, Even more, taking out Armstrong takes away the biggest run threat for NC State. Marshall has already beaten an ACC team this year, and while they have played close games they have won. They will at least play it close again in this one.
Final Marshall-NC State Prediction & Pick: Marshall +6.5 (-105)
