UFC Vegas 99: Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira continues on the prelims with a fight in the flyweight division between Matheus Nicolau and Asu Almabayev. Nicolau has now lost back-to-back fights for the first time in his UFC career after he was recently knocked out in the second round of his last fight meanwhile, Almabayev has won all three of his fights inside the Octagon and is looking to win his 17th fight in a row when he steps inside the Octagon this weekend. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Nicolau-Almabayev prediction and pick.

Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1) was once thought as next in line for a title shot until he met his match against the No. 1 ranked Brandon Royval who knocked him out in two minutes. However, the bad times didn't stop there as he was knocked out again by former title challenger Alex Perez. Now, Nicolau will be looking to finally right the ship and get back on track when he takes on surging prospect Asu Almabayev this weekend.

Asu Almabayev (20-2) came into his UFC debut riding a 13-fight winning streak where he was able to make a statement with a second-round submission victory against Ode Osbourne. He the came in and dominated each of his next two fights to remain unbeaten in his UFC career. “Zulfikar” will be looking to extend his winning streak to 17 in a row as well as get a ranking next to his name when he takes on Matheus Nicolau this weekend at the Apex.

Here are the UFC Vegas 99 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Vegas 99 Odds: Matheus Nicolau-Asu Almabayev Odds

Matheus Nicolau: +164

Asu Almabayev: -198

Over 2.5 rounds: -315

Under 2.5 rounds: +230

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Why Matheus Nicolau Will Win

  • Last Fight: (L) Alex Perez – KO
  • Last 5: 3-2
  • Finishes: 10 (5 KO/TKO/5 SUB)

Matheus Nicolau is set up to secure a crucial victory over Asu Almabaev at UFC Vegas 99, showcasing his experience and well-rounded skill set. As a seasoned UFC veteran, Nicolau's ability to adapt and perform under pressure gives him a significant edge. His patient counter-striking style, combined with excellent footwork, will likely frustrate Almabaev and keep him at bay. Nicolau's accuracy and timing could prove decisive in landing the more impactful strikes throughout the fight.

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While Almabaev brings an impressive record and strong wrestling credentials, Nicolau's takedown defense and grappling experience should neutralize much of Almabaev's ground game. Nicolau's experience against higher-level competition will be crucial, allowing him to remain composed and execute his game plan effectively. As the fight progresses, expect Nicolau to capitalize on Almabaev's aggression, potentially finding openings for his sharp counters or even securing a late stoppage. Nicolau's technical superiority and fight IQ should earn him a hard-fought decision victory, potentially putting him back in the flyweight title conversation.

Why Asu Almabayev Will Win

  • Last Fight: (W) Jose Johnson – DEC
  • Last 5: 5-0
  • Finishes: 12 (3 KO/TKO/9 SUB)

Asu Almabayev is primed to secure a significant victory over Matheus Nicolau at UFC Vegas 99, showcasing why he's one of the most promising prospects in the flyweight division. Almabayev's relentless wrestling and ground control, combined with his ever-improving striking, give him a versatile arsenal to exploit Nicolau's recent vulnerabilities. The Kazakh fighter's 16-fight win streak and undefeated UFC record demonstrate his ability to adapt and overcome various challenges.

While Nicolau brings experience and technical striking to the table, his recent back-to-back knockout losses raise concerns about his durability. Almabayev's pressure-heavy style and superior cardio are likely to overwhelm Nicolau, especially in the later rounds. The underdog's ability to seamlessly transition between striking and grappling will keep Nicolau guessing, potentially opening up opportunities for takedowns or even a finish. Almabayev's youth, athleticism, and momentum suggest he has the tools to outwork Nicolau and secure a statement victory, potentially catapulting him into the flyweight division's top 10.

Final Matheus Nicolau-Asu Almabayev Prediction & Pick

In this flyweight clash at UFC Vegas 99, Matheus Nicolau's technical striking and experience will be tested against Asu Almabaev's relentless wrestling. Nicolau's counter-striking and takedown defense could frustrate Almabaev early, but the Kazakh's persistence in securing takedowns may prove crucial as the fight progresses. Nicolau's recent durability issues are concerning, especially against Almabaev's ground-and-pound. While Nicolau has the skills to keep the fight standing and pick apart Almabaev, the latter's grappling pressure and top control are likely to be the deciding factors. Expect Almabaev to weather early storms, gradually impose his wrestling, and secure a hard-fought decision victory or late stoppage through ground dominance.

Final Matheus Nicolau-Asu Almabayev Prediction & Pick: Asu Almabayev (-198), Over 2.5 Rounds (-315)