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UFC Kansas City: Ian Machado Garry versus Carlos Prates continues on the prelims with a fight between Matt Schnell and Jimmy Flick in the flyweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Schnell-Flick prediction and pick.
Matt Schnell (16-9) returns at UFC Kansas City after a three-fight skid, most recently being submitted by Cody Durden in the second round last September. Prior to that, Schnell suffered back-to-back second-round stoppages to Steve Erceg and Matheus Nicolau. Now, Schnell seeks redemption in his comeback bout against Jimmy Flick.
Jimmy Flick (17-7) returns to UFC Kansas City after a unanimous decision loss to Nate Maness last June. Prior to that, Flick showcased his elite submission skills by tapping Malcolm Gordon with an arm triangle in the second round. Now, Flick looks to rebound and recapture momentum against Matt Schnell this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Kansas City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Kansas City Odds: Matt Schnell-Jimmy Flick Odds
Matt Schnell: -180
Jimmy Flick: +150
Over 1.5 rounds: -110
Under 1.5 rounds: -120
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Why Matt Schnell Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Cody Durden – SUB R2
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 11 (2 KO/TKO/9 SUB)
Matt Schnell is poised to end his UFC career on a high note against Jimmy Flick at UFC Kansas City. Schnell’s experience is a major factor he’s faced elite flyweights like Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval, and his well-rounded game combines sharp striking with a dangerous submission arsenal. Schnell’s reach and height advantage allow him to keep fights at his preferred range, utilizing crisp combinations and leg kicks to break down opponents. His resilience is legendary, as seen in his comeback win over Sumudaerji, where he survived multiple knockdowns before securing a submission in one of the most dramatic rounds in UFC history. Schnell’s ability to recover and capitalize on openings makes him a constant threat, even when under pressure.
While Flick is a submission specialist with a knack for creative finishes, his recent form has been inconsistent, and he’s shown vulnerabilities to strikes and pressure. Schnell’s striking edge and experience against high-level grapplers should allow him to dictate the pace and avoid prolonged ground exchanges. If Schnell keeps the fight standing, his technical striking and physical advantages give him a clear path to victory. Expect Schnell to control the action, land the cleaner shots, and potentially finish Flick for a memorable retirement win.
Why Jimmy Flick Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Nate Maness – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 15 (15 SUB)
Jimmy Flick has a clear path to victory over Matt Schnell at UFC Kansas City thanks to his relentless submission game and high-risk grappling style. Flick, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, boasts 15 submission wins and averages an impressive 4.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes, one of the highest rates in the division. Schnell, while a skilled striker with solid jiu-jitsu, has been stopped by submission in two of his last five fights and has shown vulnerability when pressured on the mat. Flick’s creative arsenal, including his trademark “Von Flick choke,” means he can capitalize on even brief opportunities if the fight hits the ground.
Although Flick’s striking is limited and his takedown accuracy is low, Schnell’s willingness to engage on the mat and his own defensive lapses give Flick the opening he needs. If Flick can close the distance, initiate scrambles, and force ground exchanges, he has a legitimate chance to catch Schnell in a submission, especially as Schnell has absorbed significant damage in recent bouts and is returning from a layoff. With both fighters known for finishing fights, Flick’s submission threat and persistence make him a live underdog, capable of pulling off an upset and reigniting his flyweight campaign this weekend.
Final Matt Schnell-Jimmy Flick Prediction & Pick
Matt Schnell vs. Jimmy Flick at UFC Kansas City is a classic striker-versus-grappler showdown, with Schnell entering as the favorite in what’s expected to be his retirement fight. Schnell’s edge in striking, experience against elite flyweights, and ability to manage range should allow him to dictate the action, especially if he avoids extended ground exchanges with Flick, who remains a dangerous submission threat. Flick’s best chance lies in catching Schnell in a scramble, but Schnell’s composure and history of surviving adversity suggest he can weather those moments. Expect Schnell to keep the fight standing, land the cleaner shots, and potentially secure a late finish or decision victory to cap off his UFC career on a high note. However, Flick’s submission game always makes him a live underdog, so a quick finish can’t be ruled out if Schnell gets careless. Ultimately, Schnell by KO or decision is the most likely outcome.
Final Matt Schnell-Jimmy Flick Prediction & Pick: Matt Schnell (-180), Over 1.5 Rounds (-110)
