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UFC 311 has finally reached an apex and we're set for a betting prediction and pick as we decide the Co-Main Event. The Bantamweight (135) Title will be on the line as Champion Merab Dvalishvili of Georgia will take on No. 2 Umar Nurmagomedov of Dagestan. Check the UFC odds series for our Dvalishvili-Nurmagomedov prediction and pick.
Merab Dvalishvili (18-4) has gone 11-2 in the UFC en route to becoming World Champion. He rides one of the UFC's longest active winning streaks at 11 fights and most recently beat Sean O'Malley to gain the belt. Now, he's in line for his first title defense as he comes in the moderate betting underdog. Dvalishvili stands 5-foot-6 with a 68-inch reach.
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0) is a perfect 6-0 in the UFC since 2021 en route to his first title challenge. Nurmagomedov most recently beat Cody Sandhagen to cement his spot in the rankings as he'll be looking to add another championship belt to Khabib Nurmagomedov's camp. The challenger stands 5-foot-8 with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 311 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 311 Odds: Merab Dvalishvili-Umar Nurmagomedov Odds
Merab Dvalishvili: +230
Umar Nurmagomedov: -285
Over 4.5 rounds: -298
Under 4.5 rounds: +220
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Why Merab Dvalishvili Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Sean O'Malley – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Merab Dvalishvili will be making his first title defense and as one of the best wrestlers in all of the UFC, he'll finally be tasked with facing another wrestler who may be at the same level as him. Still, Merab's greatest strength is his unwavering cardio and ability to keep his pace high during a fight. It was shocking to see him stand and strike with Sean O'Malley during his last bout, but it was clear that Dvalishvili captured the momentum once he was able to get the fight to the ground.
As the betting underdog, it will be very interesting to see how Dvalishvili approaches this upcoming fight knowing his opponent is just as dangerous on the ground. He'll have to make his presence felt on the feet with his striking before mixing things on the ground against Umar. Dvalishvili is also the much harder puncher and while he's not known for his knockout power, he'll certainly have a slight advantage with his physical strength over his opponent.
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Why Umar Nurmagomedov Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Cory Sandhagen – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Umar Nurmagomedov has been waiting in the wings for this title opportunity and following his impressive win over Cory Sandhagen, the UFC couldn't deny him an eventual shot at the belt. Nurmagomedov fights with the same style as his relative Khabib and is one of the best wrestlers in all of the UFC. His control on the ground in terrifying for opponents and much like his opposition in this one, he's a puzzle the rest of the division has yet to solve. Don't be surprised if Nurmagomedov immediately brings the fight to Dvalishvili and begins working his takedown attempts.
Nurmagomedov is also a very skilled striker and he throws more strikes on average than his opponent Dvalishvili. Umar also lands at an impressive 63% clip, making him extremely accurate and effective when he's on the feet. Still, he's not used to spending much time up there and given this particular matchup, I fully expect Nurmagomedov to work his wrestling in this one. It'll be interesting to see how he fares in his first championship attempt.
Final Merab Dvalishvili-Umar Nurmagomedov Prediction & Pick
It's no secret that during the lead-up to this fight, Merab Dvalishvili was opposed to facing Nurmagomedov as an opponent. While neither fighter could be denied by the UFC, this matchup is a long time coming and we'll finally see who's the best wrestler in the UFC.
While Merab Dvalishvili possesses one of the best gas tanks in all of MMA, he may have met his match in terms of the grappling. Nurmagomedov is also a slightly more fluid striker, so it'll be interesting to see which one of them folds first and initiates the wrestling takedowns.
While Merab is the rightful champion, there's a reason he's been avoiding this fight for quite some time and I expect him to defend his title with some nervous energy. Nurmagomedov, on the other hand, sees Dvalishvili as a beatable opponent and will be looking to prove his wrestling from the opening bell of this one.
For our final prediction, let's roll with the betting favorite as he's simply been too technical and dominant throughout this current run. His style has shade of Khabib written all over it and I expect him to add another belt to his family's legacy.
Final Merab Dvalishvili-Umar Nurmagomedov Prediction & Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov (-285)
