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The New York Mets are on the road to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday night. Below we will continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Diamondbacks prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Mets-Diamondbacks Projected Starters
David Peterson vs. Ryne Nelson
David Peterson (8-1) with a 2.85 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 85.1 innings pitched, 66K/37BB, .238 oBA
Last Start: at San Diego Padres: Win, 7.1 innings, 5 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 2 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 8 starts, 2.70 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 46.2 innings pitched, 30K/18BB, .237 oBA
Ryne Nelson (9-6) with a 4.29 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 130 innings pitched, 108K/30BB, .268 oBA
Last Start: at Boston Red Sox: 6 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 10 starts, 4.95 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 56.1 innings pitched, 48K/11BB, .284 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Diamondbacks Odds
New York Mets: -1.5 (+152)
Moneyline: -102
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-184)
Moneyline: -116
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
How to Watch Mets vs. Diamondbacks
Time: 3:40 PM ET/12:40 PM PT
TV: Sportsnet New York, MLB TV
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
David Peterson has been good all season. He has been especially good in August, though. Peterson has thrown 31.2 innings this month, allowed just 23 hits, only one homerun, and he has a 1.71 ERA. He has also led the Mets to four straight wins in games he has started. Peterson has been one of the best pitchers in the entire MLB this month, and I do not see that changing in this game. Expect him to have another great start Thursday night.
Peterson is not much of a strikeout pitcher. However, one thing he does well is get the ground ball. He forces opposing teams to hit the ball on the ground more than half of the time, which is very important for him. The Diamondbacks have the fifth-highest ground ball rate in baseball, so you can expect plenty of balls on the ground this game. If Peterson can keep the Diamondbacks out of the air, the Mets will win this game.
Why The Diamondbacks Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Diamondbacks need Ryne Nelson to have one of his good starts in this game. The good news is Nelson has been very good since the beginning of July. In that span, Nelson has made 10 starts and has a record of 4-0. Along with that, Nelson has a 2.62 ERA in 62 innings pitched, 62 strikeouts, and just 47 hits allowed. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in those 10 starts, as well. If Nelson can keep this up, the Diamondbacks will win the game.
The Diamondbacks, as mentioned, hit a lot of ground balls. However, they are still second in the MLB in batting average. They are also fifth in the MLB in slugging percentage, ninth in home runs, second in triples, and second in wOBA. Peterson allows opposing hitters to make solid contact a lot, so the Diamondbacks should be able to take advantage of that. If the Diamondbacks can hit as they have all season, they will be able to win this game.
Final Mets-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
At the beginning of the season, this would not be as good of a pitching matchup. However, these two pitchers are throwing the ball really well lately, so it would not be surprising to see the under hit Thursday night. As for a winner, I like the Mets to win straight up. Peterson has been great lately, and I do not see that changing. The moneyline will be my pick Thursday night.
Final Mets-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Mets ML (-102)
