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It is an all-NL East NLDS as the New York Mets visit the Philadelphia Phillies for Game One. It's time to continue our NLDS odds series with a Mets-Phillies prediction and pick.
Mets-Phillies Game 1 Projected Starters
Kodai Senga vs. Zack Wheeler
Kodai Senga (1-0) with a 3.38 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP
Last Start: Senga has made just one start this year. He started on July 26th against the Atlanta Braves, going 5.1 innings, giving up two hits, a walk, and a home run. He would allow two runs and take the win over the Braves.
Zack Wheeler (16-7) with a 2.57 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP
Last Start: Wheeler went 6.1 innings, giving up three hits, two walks, and a home run. He would surrender two runs as he took the no-decision in a loss to the Nationals.
2024 Home Splits: Wheeler was 10-3 at home this year in 16 starts with a 2.31 ERA and a .186 opponent batting average.
Here are the NLDS Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NLDS Odds: Mets-Phillies Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-137)
Moneyline: +158
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+114)
Moneyline: -188
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-122)
How to Watch Mets vs. Phillies Game 1
Time: 4:08 PM ET/ 1:08 PM PT
TV: FOX
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets finished their regular season seventh in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 12th in batting average, eighth in on-base percentage, and tenth in slugging. Francisco Lindor led the way. He hit .273 on the year with a .344 on-base percentage. He had 33 home runs, 91 RBIS, and 107 runs scored. Further, Lindor stole 29 bases this year. Meanwhile, Brandon Nimmo also had a nice year. He hit .224 with a .327 on-base percentage. Nimmo has 23 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 88 runs scored. Rounding out the top bats from the year was Pete Alnoso. He hit .240 on the year with 34 home runs, 88 RBIs, and 91 runs scored.
Pete Alonso also led the way in the series with the Brewers. Alonso hit .222 in the series with a .417 on-base percentage. He had a home run, three RBIs, and two runs scored. Starling Marte also had a solid series. He hit .333 in the series with a .417 on-base percentage. Marte drove in two runs and scored once. Finally, Mark Vientos hit .250 in the series with two RBIs and two runs scored. The Mets hit .204 in the series with the Brewers, with a home run and 15 runs scored.
Current Mets have 171 career at-bats against Zack Wheeler. They have hit .281 against Wheeler. Brandon Nimmo has the most experience, going 13-44 with two home runs and five RBIs. Further, Francisco Lindor is 8-29 against Wheeler. He has a home run and five RBIs as well. Finally, Pete Alonso is 10-34 with three RBIs against Wheeler.
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies were fifth in the majors in runs scored this year, while sitting fifth in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, and fifth in slugging. Kyle Schwarber led the way. He hit .248 this year with a .366 on-base percentage. Schwarber has 38 home runs 104 RBIs, and 110 runs scored. Alec Bohm also had a great year. He hit .280 on the year with a .332 on-base percentage. Bohm has 15 home runs, 97 RBIs, and 62 runs scored. Rounding out the best bats this year was Bryce Harper. He hit .285 on the year with a .373 on-base percentage. Harper has 30 home runs, 87 RBIS, and 85 runs scored.
Current Phillies have 41 career at-bats against Kodai Senga. They have hit just .146 against Senga. Bryce Harber is 1-2 with an RBI, while Bryson Stott is 1-5 with an RBI as well. No current player on the Phillies has more than hit against Senga.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The odds in this game one of the NLDS between the Mets and Phillies favors the Phillies. The Phillies will have Zack Wheeler going. He was third in the majors in ERA, strikeouts, wins, and WHIP this past year. Further, He allowed just eight runs in 32.1 innings over his last five starts, as the Phillies went 3-2 in the process. Kodai Senga will be going for the Mets. He has made just one start this year. He missed the first half of the season with a shoulder injury and then left the game with the Braves due to a calf strain. Still, the Mets do have options behind Senga with David Peterson and Tylor Megill. The Mets have used big innings to win their recent games. It was a big eighth inning to come back against the Braves to clinch a playoff spot. Then a five-run fifth in game one against the Brewers, followed by a four-run ninth in game three. That big inning will not come against the Phillies in game one.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies ML (-188)
