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Two middle-of-the-pack Big Ten teams face off as Michigan State visits Penn State. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Michigan State-Penn State prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Michigan State enters the game at 15-9 on their ear while going 7-6 in Big Ten play, sitting fifth in the conference. They have won three of their last four games and seven of their last nine. The first loss was against a 13th-ranked Wisconsin, and they fell by 15. Michigan State was also upset by Minnesota by three. Still, they have some solid wins as well. They beat Minnesota at home, while also beating Maryland twice, and then, last time out, took care of Illinois at home by eight.
Meanwhile, Penn State comes in at 12-12 on the year, and 6-7 in conference play. That places them tied for eighth in the conference with Indiana and Iowa. They have also been solid as of late winning three of their last four overall. They beat Rutgers, Indiana, and Iowa all in that span, but they lost last time out. It was a tight game on the road with Northwestern, but they would fall by five 68-63.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Michigan State-Penn State Odds
Michigan State: -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -196
Penn State: +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +162
Over: 145.5 (-115)
Under: 145.5 (-105)
How to Watch Michigan State vs. Penn State
Time: 6:30 PM ET/ 3:30 PM PT
TV: Big Ten Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Michigan State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Michigan State comes in ranked 16th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency while also sitting 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Michigan State comes in ranked 120th in the nation in points per game this year, while also sitting 15th in assists per game this year. Tyson Walked leads the way this year. He comes in with 19.0 points per game this year, while he is shooting 46.5 percent this year. Meanwhile, three other players come in with over ten points per game. That starts with Malik Holl who comes in with 11.8 points per game, while he is shooting 52.5 percent this year. A.J. Hoggard comes in with 11.7 points per game this year while leading the team in assists. Hoggard has 5.2 assists per game this year. Rounding out the top scorers is Jaden Akins, who comes in with 11.0 points per game.
Michigan State sits 187th in rebounds per game this year. Meanwhile, they sit just inside the top 150 in both offensive and defensive rebound percentages. Mady Sissoko leads the way in this regard. He comes in with 6.1 rebounds per game this year, with nearly two per game coming on the offensive side of the glass. Meanwhile. Malik Hill has five rebounds per game while two other players come in with four or more rebounds per game.
Michigan State is 27th in points against per game while sitting 38th in effective field goal percentage. They are also 38th in the nation in opponent effective field goal percentage this year. Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard are a major part of the defense. Walker comes in with 2.0 steals per game, while Hoggard comes in with 1.3 steals per game this year.
Why Penn State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Penn State is 89th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year, sitting 80th in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 106th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Penn State is 94th in the nation in points per game this year, while sitting 174th in effective field goal percentage this year. Kanye Clary leads the way on offense. He comes in with 17.1 points per game this year while shooting 46.1 percent from the field. Ace Baldwin Jr. is next on the team, with 14.1 points per game, while also leading the team in assists. He has 5.4 assists per game this year. Rounding out the top scorers is Qudus Wahab. While he has just 945 points per game, he is shooting 65.4 percent from the field.
Penn State is 315th in the nation in rebounds per game this year. They are outside the top 225 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. Wahab leads the way here. He comes in with 7.8 rebounds per game this year. He has a quarter of the team's rebound this year, with the next most on the team being from Nick Kern. Kern comes in with just 4.1 rebounds per game.
Penn State is 198th in opponent points per game this year while sitting 192nd in opponent effective field goal percentage. Wahab has been solid on defense as well. He has 1.5 blocks per game this year, while also having .8 steals per game. Further, Kern and Clary both have a steal per game, but they also both average over 1.8 turnovers per game this year.
Final Michigan State-Penn State Prediction & Pick
The biggest concern for Michigan State will be controlling Qudus Wahab in the rebounding game. The Penn State rebounding game crumbles without him, and while Michigan State does not have any dominating rebounders, they do have a solid team collective. Further, the Michigan State offense is far superior to the Penn State one. This will be enough for them to come away with the win. Michigan State has also covered in four of their last six games, including four of their last five as favorites.
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Final Michigan State-Penn State Prediction & Pick: Michigan State -4.5 (-110)
