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It is a Big Ten/ACC clash as Minnesota visits North Carolina. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Minnesota-North Carolina prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Minnesota enters the game at 2-0 on the year with wins over Nebraska and Eastern Michigan. It was a tight win over Nebraska. Minnesota got up in the first half with a 34-yard field goal by Dragan Kesich. Those were the only points of the half though. Nebraska scored in the third quarter to take the lead and then made it a full touchdown lead in the fourth quarter. Athan Kaliakmanis would conduct a touchdown drive with 2:32 left in the game to tie it up. Then, as time expired, Kesich hit his second field goal of the game for the win. The next week, the Minnesota offense struggled to start again, this time with just 10 points in the first half, but would score 15 unanswered in the second to take a 25-6 win.
North Carolina also enters the game at 2-0. They had a fairly stress-free win against South Carolina to open the season. They had a 17-point lead going into the fourth and held onto win 31-17. Appalachian State was a different story though. It was a back-and-forth affair with five lead changes in the game. With 1:22 left in the game. Appalachian State tied in on a field goal, but in the second overtime, UNC held the Appalachian State to get the 40-34 victory.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Minnesota-North Carolina Odds
Minnesota: +6.5 (+100)
North Carolina: -6.5 (-122)
Over: 50.5 (-115)
Under: 50.5 (-105)
How to Watch Minnesota vs. North Carolina
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN App
Time: 3:30 PM ET/1 12:30 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Minnesota Will Cover The Spread
For Minnesota to win in this game, it is going to start with the defense. They have allowed just 16 points so far this year while playing well. Last week was another solid performance. They got pressure on the quarterback 15 times in the game and had four sacks. That was led by Kyler Baugh who has six pressures and two sacks in the game. The Golden Gophers also tackled well, missing just four tackles while making 19 stops for offensive failure. The issue for them was the run defense. All four missed tackles were in the run game, while they did not have a player with an average depth of tackle better than two yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
On offense, Athan Kaliakmanis has to be solid. Last game he went 10-15 for 117 yards. Kaliakmanis has to take care of the ball if Minnesota is going to cover. In the two games so far, he has been intercepted twice while also throwing two more turnover-worthy passes. Minnesota did much better protecting Kaliakmanis last game, allowing just three pressures on the quarterback. Still, he has been pressured 18 times on 66 dropbacks this year. He has been sacked just four times but has had to scramble three other times for positive yardage.
The best hope for Minnesota to cover comes in the run game. They have been solid and were fantastic against EMU. Last time out, Sean Tyler ran 17 times for 93 yards. He did not see first contact until roughly three yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, he forced three missed tackles. The biggest issue was he fumbled twice. Darius Taylor stepped up big in the game though. He ran 33 times for 193 yards and a score in the game. He had 128 yards after contact and forced seven missed tackles in the game.
Why North Carolina Will Cover The Spread
Drake Maye will be looking to have a big game in this one. So far this year he is 45-62 for 477 yards and two touchdowns. Still, he has not been as special as expected. While he is converting 72.6 percent of his passes and has made four big-time throws according to PFF, he has not taken care of the ball. This year he has two interceptions and another turnover-worthy pass. Part of the issue may be dropped. He has had five of his on-target passes dropped this year. Part of it could be pressure. Maye has been pressured 26 times on 72 dropbacks. That has led to two sacks and eight scrambles for positive yardage.
Maye needs help from his wide receivers in this one. JJ Jones brought in five of his seven targets in the game for 91 yards, but 70 yards of that was through the air. Meanwhile, Gavin Blackwell brought in four of his six targets but had just 13 yards. Both of them need to be more explosive in this game to get the cover.
UNC will also be hoping to get a similar production from the run game. Caleb Hood and Drake Maye both ran touchdowns in, but the star was Omarion Hampton. He ran 26 times against Appalachian State for 234 yards. Hampton was getting great blocking on the way to scoring three times, with an average point of first contact three yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He also forced nine missed tackles, had three runs over 15 yards, and three more over 10 yards.
Finally, on defense, UNC needs to find a way to get sacks. Last game they had 25 quarterback pressures, but did not come away with a sack. Kaimon Rucker had nine pressures in the game, but he did not come away with the sack, even though he hit the quarterback three times. If UNC can get the same pressure in this game, and a few sacks, they will come away with an easy win.
Final Minnesota-North Carolina Prediction & Pick
This is a great matchup of strength against strength. Minnesota wins with a solid defense, while UNC relies on its offense to outscore its opponents. The Golden Gopher defense is solid, and while Drake Maye has been good, he has not been Heisman level this year, as was his potential. If Minnesota can hold UNC, they are good enough in the running game to grind out drives and find a few points. If they get a few short fields, they could pull the upset. With the spread over a touchdown, take Minnesota in this one.
Final Minnesota-North Carolina Prediction & Pick: Minnesota +6.5 (+100)
