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The Kansas City Royals are set to host the Los Angeles Angels today in the final matchup of a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Angels-Royals prediction and pick we have laid out below.
It's been nothing but shutouts through the first two games of the series, with the Royals taking the opener 7-0 and the Angels answering back with a 6-0 win on Tuesday. Both teams are in fourth place in their respective divisions, with the Angels at 41-56 for the year and the Royals at 39-58
Here are the Angels-Royals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Angels-Royals Odds
Los Angeles Angels: +1.5 (-166)
Kansas City Royals: -1.5 (+138)
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
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Why The Angels Could Cover The Spread
Even with a troublesome 2019 season, during which he posted a 5.54 ERA, projected Los Angeles starter Janson Junk has a career ERA below 3.90 in the minors. Now, he'll get his latest chance to prove he belongs in the big leagues. Junk had a 1.20 ERA in three starts at triple-A Salt Lake City this month, while allowing opponents to hit just .132 against him.
He delivered one shutout inning in relief back in May — his only MLB action of the season — but did make four starts for the Angels last season, allowing a respectable seven earned runs and two walks with 10 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings pitched. Home runs were a problem in these games, as he gave up five. However, he seems to have taken positive strides in this department, allowing only four long balls in 48 2/3 innings at the minor league level this year.
As for projected Royals starter Brad Keller, the 26-year-old is still trying to recapture the magic of his 2020 campaign, during which he posted a career-best 2.47 ERA and .202 opponent's batting average. His 2022 ERA currently sits at 4.16 — more than a run improvement from last year, but still high enough to leave Royals fans wanting more, especially considering his 10 losses are the most in the American League. He gave up four earned runs and walked five batters in four innings in a loss to the Tampa Bay Rays last week, putting a damper on what had been a positive start to the month of July.
The Angels were able to buck their recent struggles at the plate, at least momentarily, in Tuesday's 6-0 win. Shohei Ohtani and Max Stassi each homered, while Luis Rengifo drove in a pair of runs on a one-out double to break open what was a 2-0 game in the seventh inning.
Why The Royals Could Cover The Spread
While Keller has had his ups and downs throughout the course of the season, his performance this month prior to his last outing does inspire optimism. Prior to the setback against the Rays, he had posted a 3-0 record while allowing only five earned runs in 18 2/3 innings in July.
Junk's inability to go deep in games is another area that could tilt the contest in the Royals' favor, given that Los Angeles has the third-worst bullpen ERA in the American League. Junk has never gone more than 4 1/3 innings in an MLB game, and was averaging under five-inning per start at the minor league level before being called back up. Regardless of how well the rookie performs, a rocky Angels relief staff will be a factor in this game.
It's difficult to find ways to feel good about an offense that just got shut out, but outfielder Andrew Benintendi's recent success is a good place to start. Over the past 30 days, Benintendi leads the American League with a .405 batting average and .467 on-base percentage.
Final Angels-Royals Prediction & Pick
Prior to Tuesday night's contest, the Angels had scored more than two runs just once in their previous seven games, with an MLB-worst .553 OPS and 48 runs scored in July. The Royals have also been significantly more productive this month, ranking second in batting average, sixth in OPS, and 11th in runs scored entering Tuesday. However, rookie standout Bobby Witt Jr. — who ranks among the top five first-year players in hits, home runs, RBIs and runs scored, in addition to having a rookie-best 24 extra-base hits – exited Sunday's game against the Tampa Bay Rays with a hamstring injury. The ailment does not appear to be a serious one, but it was enough to keep him out of the lineup on Tuesday. If he's not able to return or is not at full strength, the under appears to be a safe bet at nine runs.
Final Angels-Royals Prediction & Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
