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The Houston Astros will face off with the Toronto Blue Jays in the second of a three-game series in Canada. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with an Astros-Blue Jays prediction and pick.
The Astros won the opener 11-7 on Friday at the Rogers Centre. Houston got hot out of the gate when Alex Bregman slugged a two-out homer to left-center to put the Astros up 1-0 after one inning. Then, the Jays answered back in the bottom of the second when Raimel Tapia clipped an RBI double to tie it up. Houston responded with RBI doubles by Yordan Alvarez and Yuli Guriel in the third to help propel Houston to a 4-1 lead entering the fourth. It set up the stage for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to approach the plate with two runners on and one out. Next, Guerrero crushed a ball over the heart of the plate to deep left for the game-tying home run. Houston later tacked on a run and led 5-4, heading into the sixth.
The game changed on its face when Jeremy Pena mangled a three-run bomb to right field to put Houston up 8-4. Then, Alvarez added to the lead with a two-run home run to deep center. Toronto responded with a two-run home run from Matt Chapman in the seventh inning. It put the Jays within three, but Toronto could not add any more as they fell short in the opener. Jose Urquidy tossed five innings for the Astros, allowing four earned runs on seven hits while striking out six.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Astros-Blue Jays odds:
MLB Odds: Astros-Blue Jays Odds
Astros: +1.5 (-178)
Blue Jays: -1.5 (+146)
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
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Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Houston covered the spread last night because Alvarez, Bregman, and Tucker came through. Now, the Astros will try to replicate the performance on the field and the mound. Luis Garcia will take the hill for the Astros.
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Garcia is 1-0 with a 4.60 ERA in 2022. He allowed five earned runs with five hits over six innings in his last start. Garcia is looking to regain the ability to keep hitters grounded, as he has allowed three home runs over his previous two starts. His offense should provide support, as Alvarez, Guriel, Bregman, and Tucker all performed adequately in the opener. Alvarez and Guriel went 3 for 4, while Tucker hit 2 for 4 from the plate. Bregman blasted his lone hit for a homer and scored three runs. The Astros clobbered 14 hits as a team and look to maintain that marker in the second game.
The Astros will cover the spread if Garcia can give them five or six quality innings. In addition to that, Houston needs its sluggers to replicate the performance from last night. Consistency has not been strong with the Astros lately, as they usually crash back down to Earth offensively after a big night. The offense will look to avoid a letdown.
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
Toronto mashed the ball well last night. Pitching was the problem as the Jays allowed three home runs to the Astros. Now, Toronto will try to bounce back from that performance. Jose Berrios will take the mound, looking to be the guy that brings Toronto back to the win column.
Berrios is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA over four starts. He allowed two earned runs on five hits over seven innings in his last start but took the no-decision. Now, Berrios looks to claim his second victory in 2022 and has the backup to give him the lift. Guerrero continues to have an all-star season, as he slugged his sixth homer last night. In addition to Guerrero, the Jays have other weapons in George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Springer and Gurriel went 1 for 4 last night, but Bichette did not get a hit. Also, he has struggled over the last five games, as he has hit 3 for 17. Bichette will look to overcome his struggles and be a part of the offense.
The Blue Jays will cover the spread if Berrios can give them the bounce-back performance they need to rest their bullpen. Additionally, Springer, Bichette, and Gurriel have to do what they can to support Guerrero. The key for Toronto is getting the lead early and clamping down against the ferocious Houston lineup.
Final Astros-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick
These two have played four games, and three of those contests have had one-run victories. Toronto edged Houston out in two games last weekend. The Jays have not covered the spread in four games and only two times over their last ten games. If Toronto were playing a lesser team, they would cover. But Houston has competed against them and will do so again.
Final Astros-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick: Astros: +1.5 (-178)
