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The Houston Astros take on the Los Angeles Angels. Check out our MLB odds series for our Astros Angels prediction and pick.
Framber Valdez goes to the bump for the Astros, while Reid Detmers takes the hill for the Angels.
Framber Valdez has a 2.64 ERA. He has been dependable and consistent for the defending American League champions. Valdez pitched eight strong innings in his most recent start against the A's, but he took a hard-luck loss. Valdez held Oakland to just four hits. He didn't allow any hard contact by the A's with runners in scoring position. He gave up two earned runs, but they scored in wildly improbable fashion. A 10-foot tapper in front of home plate was gathered by Houston catcher Martin Maldonado, who was unable to tag the Oakland runner coming home from third base. Then Maldonado allowed a passed ball for a second run, which was followed by a Valdez wild pitch for the third run (one of the three runs was unearned). The A's did absolutely nothing in big spots, but that crazy seqeuence led to three runs. Valdez's final line looked very good, but he was even better than the numbers might indicate.
Reid Detmers, who threw a no-hitter two months ago (back when the Angels were in a good place in the standings, which feels like 10 years ago), has a 4.22 ERA. He, like the Halos themselves, has struggled since his moment of glory. He allowed eight runs in 9 2/3 innings in the two starts immediately following that no-no against the Rays on May 10. Then, in June, he posted a 4.67 ERA for the month. He missed a few weeks but returned to the Los Angeles rotation on July 8. He looked noticeably better, throwing six scoreless innings against the red-hot Orioles. If Detmers discovered something with his technique during his two weeks away from the ballfield, and has solved a flaw which was holding him back, he could be able to author a resurgence and give this team a lift in the second half of the season.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Astros-Angels MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Astros-Angels Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Angels: +1.5 (-110)
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
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Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
Houston's bullpen has a 1.57 ERA in 12 games versus the Angels this season. The Angels have a .188 batting average and a minus-19 run differential over their last 11 games, including their 7-1 win over Houston on Wednesday night. Those are some detailed numbers, but they aren't really necessary. Houston is a dramatically better team than the Angels. The Halos got a win when Shohei Ohtani started and dominated on Wednesday night. Without Ohtani's pitching, the Angels are not a good team. Ohtani starts add up to wins, and non-Ohtani starts are regularly losses for Los Angeles these days. Framber Valdez is an excellent pitcher, while Reid Detmers is merely a decent pitcher. No one has to overthink why the Astros are such an attractive pick.
Why The Angels Could Cover the Spread
The Astros are without an injured Yordan Alvarez. It sure was easy for Shohei Ohtani to smother Houston's batting order on Wednesday night. Houston has been so good over the past month, but with the All-Star break looming and the Astros comfortably in front in the American League West, it would be very understandable if this team encountered a small lull and lost some of the energy it has displayed in recent weeks. In other words, this is a letdown spot in a game played at an unusual time: just after 5 p.m. in Anaheim. The Angels could pounce on this chance to win the series.
Final Astros-Angels Prediction & Pick
If Ohtani does not pitch, the Angels lose. He is not going to pitch in this game. So, you do the math.
Final Astros-Angels Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5
