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The Houston Astros take on the Seattle Mariners. Check out our MLB odds series for our Astros Mariners prediction and pick.
Luis Garcia gets the ball for the Astros, while Marco Gonzales takes the bump for the Mariners.
Luis Garcia has a 3.38 ERA. He won't make big headlines, but he has been a solid, competent member of a very good Houston rotation. Garcia has given up more than three earned runs in only one of his eight starts this season. One point of concern is that he has given up 15 hits in his last three starts, encompassing 14 innings pitched. He pitches with runners on base more than Astro manager Dusty Baker would like. In four of his first five starts this season, he pitched into the sixth inning. In his last three starts, he has not. However, in his last two starts, Garcia has given up two unearned runs apiece (four total), because his defense has not helped him out. The numbers and facts paint a mixed record of Garcia, who clearly has room to improve. He has done a fine job, but there's a real possibility of regression if he doesn't sharpen up. He is not an easy pitcher to evaluate when making an Astros Mariners prediction.
Marco Gonzales has a 3.74 ERA. He has technically made nine starts, but he was injured in the first inning of one start, so that should be tossed out. In his eight non-truncated starts, Gonzales has created a split reality. In three of those starts, encompassing 12 innings, he gave up 17 runs, though only nine were earned. His defense did not help him. In his other five starts, Gonzales pitched 31 innings and gave up only nine runs. He is usually an effective pitcher, but he occasionally fails to pitch out of jams. This is another tricky part of making an Astros Mariners pick based on the current MLB odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Astros-Mariners MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Astros-Mariners Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+108)
Seattle Mariners: +1.5 (-130)
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
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Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
The Astros have been dominated in each of the first two games of this weekend series in Seattle. These have been noncompetitive games in which the Mariners roared to a big early lead and prevented the Astros from making a rally. This isn't tennis, but the 6-1, 6-0 scorelines reflect the true measure of how much Seattle has owned Houston in this series. Surely, a high-quality Houston team won't get swept. Surely, the defending American League champions are going to punch back with better pitching and a reasonably competent display of hitting. Remember that the Astros have lost only three times this season when scoring at least three runs. They are highly likely to score at least three runs here, and if they score five, there's a very good chance they will cover the spread. Keep all of this in mind when you make your Astros Mariners prediction.
Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
After crushing the Astros twice, why not thrice? This is the Mariner team we saw in the first 17 games of the season. Remember that Seattle was 11-6 and looking every bit like a playoff team before cratering in the next 25 games (six wins, 19 losses). The Mariners are playing with an appropriate level of urgency this weekend. They know they still have more than 110 games left to play and can still get back in the hunt if they can get on a roll and stay hot. The Mariners do have talent and potential; they displayed it the last two days. If this team shows up again, the M's can sweep the Astros and build confidence for the road ahead. File this away when you evaluate the Astros Mariners odds and make your Astros Mariners pick.
Final Astros-Mariners Prediction & Pick
An accomplished, proven team is not going to get swept, and it won't continue to be completely shut down. The chances are very good that the Astros will manage to score at least four or five runs, and when that happens, they very rarely lose.
Final Astros-Mariners Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5
