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The Houston Astros will attempt to win the series as they face the Texas Rangers in the finale of a four-game series in Arlington, Texas. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with an Astros-Rangers prediction and pick.
The Astros edged the Rangers 4-2 in a game that went down to the wire. Chas McCormick struck first for the Astros when he drilled the first pitch to the opposite field for his first home run in 2022. It gave the Astros the 1-0 lead early. Later, Mitch Garvey answered back with a shot of his own, leveling a 1-2 pitch to deep-left for a solo home run. It was his second of the year, and it tied the game at 1-1. Later, the Astros retaliated in the fifth inning when Kyle Tucker punched a bases-loaded RBI double that scored all the runners. It gave the Astros a 4-3 lead.
The ninth inning did not go as smoothly as Houston planned. First, closer Ryne Stanek walked Willie Calhoun and allowed a double to Adolis Garcia. He managed to get two outs, with one scoring on a groundout. Ultimately, he struck out Kole Calhoun to strand the tying run and close out the game. The Astros are in fourth place at 9-9 and sit two and a half games behind the Los Angeles Angels in the AL West. Meanwhile, the Rangers dropped to 6-12 and are in last place in the division.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Astros-Rangers MLB odds:
MLB Odds: Astros-Rangers Odds
Astros: -1.5 (-102)
Rangers: +1.5 (-118)
Over: 8.5 (-104)
Under: 8.5 (-118)
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Why The Astros Could Cover The Spread
Houston will go with ace Justin Verlander on the mound today. Verlander is 1-1 with a 1.89 ERA in 2022.
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Verlander allowed three runs with four hits over six innings to take a no-decision in his last start. Now, Verlander hopes to replicate the effort from his first two starts and shut down another AL West team. He must keep the ball in the yard and not allow Texas hitters to take him deep. Verlander will need some help from the bats, who have struggled thus far in 2022.
The Astros are 24th in batting average, 23rd in on-base percentage, 23rd in runs scored, and 18th in slugging percentage. Yes, they have not had the services of Jose Altuve, who has not played since April 20 when he strained his left hamstring. However, the Astros still have a plethora of weapons in Alex Bregman, Yuli Guriel, and Yordan Alvarez. Bregman is hitting .267 but is 1 for 9 in this series. Likewise, Guriel is struggling as he is batting .218. He is 2 for 8 in the series and did not start Wednesday's game. Conversely, Alvarez is hitting .234 but has picked it up over the last three games, going 5 for 9. The Astros need all three players to keep the pace simultaneously to take the game against the Rangers.
The Astros will cover the spread if they receive a successful start from Verlander. In addition to that, Houston needs its best hitters to cover up for the loss of Altuve, who still needs more time to recover.
Why The Rangers Could Cover The Spread
Texas will try and even up the four-game series against Houston. Hence, they will send Martin Perez to the mound. Perez is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA over three starts. He delivered spectacularly in his last start, not allowing a run with two hits over six innings in a 2-0 win over the Oakland Athletics. However, he took the no-decision as the Rangers could not score until he was out of the game. Perez will face a tougher team today as he searches for his first win. He needs support from some of the big bats in the lineup. One of those top-notch hitters is Corey Seager.
Seager is hitting .243 over his first 17 games with the Rangers. Additionally, he has managed to hit just one home run in 2022. Seager went 0 for 4 last night and is 3 for 12 throughout the series. The Rangers need him at his best to give themselves a chance to win or even cover. Texas must get to Verlander early and not allow him to get into a groove on the hill. Then, the bullpen must continue its recent success. Texas relievers have allowed one earned run over three games against the Astros. Today, the pen hopes to continue that effort, especially if Perez cannot go the distance.
The Rangers will cover the spread if Perez limits his walks and finds a way to pitch five to six innings. In addition to that, Texas must strike at Verlander early in the game. Texas will cover if Seager and the Texas lineup can drive runs across the board.
Final Astros-Rangers Prediction & Pick
Verlander is still an ace. Conversely, Perez is not a great pitcher at all. The Astros have played the Rangers well. Expect Houston to win and cover the spread as Verlander leads them to victory.
Final Astros-Rangers Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5 (-102)
