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The Houston Astros take on the Minnesota Twins. Check out our MLB odds series for our Astros Twins prediction and pick.
Jose Urquidy gets the start for the Astros, while Chris Archer gets the call for the Twins.
Jose Urquidy has a 4.56 ERA. This is the product of two bad starts. He gave up six runs in four innings to the Mariners in April, and he gave up four runs in five innings versus the Blue Jays a few weeks ago. In his other starts, Urquidy has been very good, especially in a six-inning shutout of the Tigers in his most recent game on May 5.
Chris Archer has a 3.26 ERA. He has not pitched past the fifth inning in any start this season, and he has not given up more than two runs per outing this season. He has been a short-length starter who has not been dominant but who has not allowed big innings. Minnesota knows what it's getting in each Archer start. Handing the ball over to the bullpen is the expectation. The real key is for the Twins to give Archer meaningful run support. More on that in a moment as we evaluate the MLB odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Astros-Twins MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Astros-Twins Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+134)
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-162)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
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Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
This series was circled on the calendar by a lot of MLB odds analysts before the season began, for an obvious reason: Carlos Correa, a central producer on the Astros' great teams of the past several years, is now a member of the Twins. However, he is unavailable for this series due to an injury. Correa not being in the Minnesota lineup at a time when the Twins are struggling to get big hits is a real deficit for the American League Central contender. It's good that the Twins are in a mediocre division, but they're not going to hold up against the Astros' pitching without Correa.
Also worth noting: The Twins are 3 for their last 28 with runners in scoring position. RISP numbers are chronically bad for a lot of teams. The Twins were on a roll for awhile, but in the past week, they have definitely hit worse, especially in high-leverage situations. When a team is struggling that much, and it can't call upon Carlos Correa, it is entirely sensible to pick the Astros, who have good pitching and defense and can look to Jose Urquidy, a veteran, for a solid, no-frills outing of workmanlike ball. This is part of the picture when thinking about an Astros Twins prediction.
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
After being 3 of 28 with RISP, the Twins are bound to bust loose. When a baseball team is really bad, it's true that the team should be treated skeptically from a larger and more expansive vantage point. However, over the course of 162 games, even the worst teams are going to have 55 or 60 winning games. Even the worst teams will have days when they bust loose. Look at the Cincinnati Reds taking two of three from the Milwaukee Brewers and scoring 14 runs on Wednesday afternoon. Even the most horrible teams have good days. The Twins are not a horrible team — let's be clear about that — but the larger point is that if you're worried about their horrible RISP performances in recent days, remember that baseball always provides a change at some point. That change might not be sustained, but it eventually happens.
This is the day for Minnesota to change its luck and change the dynamics of an Astros Twins pick.
Final Astros-Twins Prediction & Pick
The Twins were smothered by Justin Verlander the other night. Going against Urquidy gives them a chance to face a much more hittable pitcher. Take the Twins plus the run and a half.
Final Astros-Twins Prediction & Pick: Twins +1.5
